Will Pitt's Latest Open "Softly?" Probably.

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part II - $17.6m (-59.7%)
2. Skyfall - $16.5m (-53.5%)
3. Lincoln - $15.2m (-40.8%)
4. Life Of Pi - $12.4m (-44.8%)
5. Rise Of The Guardians - $12m (-49.5%)
6. Wreck-It Ralph - $7m (-57.8%)
7. Killing Them Softly - $6.7m (NEW) - $2,764 PTA
8. Red Dawn - $5.9m (-58.7%)
9. Flight - $4.6m (-45.6%)
10.Silver Linings Playbook - $2.8m (-36.1%)
-The Collector - $1.5m (NEW) - $1,069 PTA

Yeah...this is going to be a slow weekend.

Breaking Dawn is pretty much behaving as any Twilight film would be at this point. It's following Breaking Dawn Part 1 pretty closely, so expect a similar hold of around 60% over the post Thanksgiving weekend. However, Skyfall and Lincoln are still riding waves of powerful reception, and both may be able to get past the tween event by next weekend. Life Of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook should also have good holds, thanks to strong WOM and oscar buzz. Finally, expect Rise Of The Guardians to hold better than most family films on this weekend, due to its strength as a holiday film, and their relative immunity to this weekend's curse.

Killing Them Softly, despite strong viral buzz with a series of fake posters, (It's quite ironic how the official poster that they went with is by far the worst and least creative.) strong reception from its initial screening at Cannes 2012, has marketing that has been nonexistent. If it weren't for the surprisingly high flixster rating and Brad Pitt's name (Andrew Dominik also has a small, but devoted following from 2007's The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), I'd have it at an even lower gross than I already do. Still, we can expect this to at least make some money, but if this is really a disaster, it'll be pretty evident as to why.

The Collector is probably going to also end up dead on arrival. Reviews aren't quite stellar, and the marketing has been totally muted. On top of that, Horror movies rarely find any success when released after Halloween, so this film looks to be doomed from the start.

I'm Back! Thanksgiving Weekend Predictions

 

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part II - $42.3m (-70%)
2. Skyfall - $30.9m (-24.8%)
3. Rise Of The Guardians - $27.5m (NEW) - $7,528 PTA
4. Lincoln - $19.3m (-8.3%)
5. Wreck-It Ralph - $15.1m (-18.7%)
6. Life Of Pi - $14.7m  (NEW) - $5,482 PTA
7. Red Dawn - $11.3m (NEW) - $4,147 PTA
8. Flight - $7.2m (-18.2%)
9. The Silver Linings Playbook - $3.5m (+690%)
10. Argo - $2.9m (-28.3%)

These are for the three-day weekend, by the way.

So....it's finally Thanksgiving weekend. We've got an interesting line up of films this weekend: A new film by DreamWorks Animation, an action remake of the first PG-13 movie ever made, and an adaptation of a critically acclaimed novel. Of course, we also have Twilight's second weekend, so there's that. Twilight was actually the easiest film to predict so far. Despite having the draw of being the final Twilight film, (cue sighs of relief from men everywhere) it's behaving pretty much like any other Twilight film would. Thus, expect a hefty drop around 70%, just like Breaking Dawn II and New Mon.

Rise Of The Guardians has been frequently described as a kiddie Avengers. We've got Soviet Santa, an Austrailian Easter Bunny, a tooth fairy that apparently resembles a human/hummingbird hybrid, a mute sandman, and an angsty Jack Frost. This film has been recieving iffy prospects for a while now. The marketing is very weak, and the look of the film, particularly in the characters, seems to be turning off people as well. However, Dreamwork's name will prevent this from being a total disaster. They've never had a CGI film open under 30m since Antz, and that came out nearly 15 years ago! However, it looks like Guardians will be the first. From this day on, no animated film will be made with the word "Guardians" in the title.

Life Of Pi, the story of a religious boy who becomes stranded at sea with a vicious predator, has been getting a lot of Oscar buzz. The big budget film directed by Ang Lee, (Brokeback Mountain, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon) is a big contender not just for Picture, but also for several tech nods, based on the amazing visuals captured in the film's trailer. However, the concept would still be a bit of a hard sell to general audiences. Much like Hugo last year, it'll need strong WOM (which it'll probably get) to stay afloat over the rest of the season. Sorry for the pun.

The final opener this weekend is Red Dawn, a film that's been in release hell for a while. It was originally going to come out two years ago! However, the fact that its main stars are now known as Thor and Peeta Mallark, it could attract more teens and young adults to the theater. Buzz is also high in this demographic, albeit not elsewhere. Expect a modest run for this film.

I may be a little bullish on the holds for Lincoln and Skyfall, but these films are having incredible word of mouth, and they could end up having some pretty great holds this weekend. Wreck-It Ralph will be challenged by Guardians, but there should still be a big family draw for that. Also, Silver Linings Playbook may not expand quite like The Descendants did last year, but it should still do pretty well.