Spaghetti's Final Oscar Predictions

With the Oscars coming up tomorrow, it's about time that I post my final predictions as to what will win, as well as what I think deserves to win.

Note: I have not seen Amour yet.

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BEST PICTURE
What Will Win: Argo
What Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Argo's pretty much won every possible award. The Critic's Choice, Golden Globe, Screen Actor's Guild, Director's Guild, BAFTAs, etc.. This massive sweep of guilds and special awards only happened twice this centurty, with Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire. Argo is one of the safest bets of the night. I too loved Argo, but Zero Dark Thirty made for a hypnotic, jaw dropping examination of the killing of worldwide terrorist Osama Bin Laden. Still, Argo would make a very satisfying, albeit predictable, choice for Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Who Should Win: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

As long as Steven Spielberg didn't mess things up, Lincoln was going to be a near-masterpiece of contemporary cinema. Come November, it became clear that he didn't mess up. While this category is still a bit of a toss up due to a lack of Ben Afflect, (the only person with a 0% chance of winning, IMO, is Zeithlin) I'm going with the filmmaking legend.

BEST ACTOR
Who Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)
Who Should Win: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)

It's a shame that Denis Lavant wasn't nominated here, but Daniel Day Lewis is truly remarkable (as he always is) in becoming the 16th president of the United States. Bravo, good man.

BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Lawrence won over audiences as Tiffany, the young woman with an attitude in Silver Linings Playbook. Much like everyone else in the movie, she was admittedly pretty good. Perhaps not Oscar worthy, but still very strong. I'd still love to see it go to Jessica Chastain's film commanding performance as an agent hellbent on bringing justice to Osama Bin Laden. That, and I just love Jessica Chastain in general. It could still go to Emmanuel Riva for Amour, however, who gained traction after winning the BAFTA. Still, the Weinstein pick is probably safest.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR  
Who Will Win: Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Who Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

This is just a gut feeling, especially considering how DeNiro hasn't won any big awards for his role, but his performance as a father with OCD might win over the Academy, especially with his prestige. I'd rather see the award go to Phillip Seymour Hoffman's masterful (no pun intended) performance as the leader of a new religion, and perhaps a cult.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Who Should Win: Amy Adams (The Master)

Much like the rest of the world, Fantine made me cry. Given her numerous wins, Anne Hathaway is one of the clearest locks of the evening. Still, I'd like to see The Academy make the brave choice of Amy Adams in The Master. She gives one of the most haunting and intriguing performances in recent years, and she deserves some recognition for it. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who Will Win: Michael Haneke (Amour)
Who Should Win: Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)

With the traction that Amour's been getting, it could make a move at more than just winning Foreign Feature, and this is probably the place where it can succeed the most. It should be able to blow past Tarantino and Boal, who were both previous winners unlike Haneke. Having said that, you should probably be able to guess what my choice winner is.
  
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
Who Will Win: Chris Terrio (Argo)
Who Should Win: Chris Terrio (Argo) or Tony Kushner (Lincoln)

It's hard to choose between Terrio and Kushner, as both of them wrote some of the best scripts I can remember. Both combined political intrigue, shining star moments, intense drama, and even humorous moments to create some truly fantastic scripts. I'd be thrilled with either one winning, and Terrio looks to win easily given the massive love for Argo everywhere. I'd be very annoyed if any of the other three nominees won.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
What Will Win: "Skyfall" (Skyfall)
What Should Win: "Skyfall" (Skyfall)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Who Will Win: Mychael Danna (Life Of Pi)
Who Should Win: Mychael Danna (Life Of Pi)

BEST FILM EDITING
Who Will Win: William Goldenberg (Argo)
Who Should Win: William Goldenberg (Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Who Will Win: Claudio Miranda (Life Of Pi)
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins (Skyfall)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Will Win: Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer (Anna Karenina)
Who Should Win:  David Gorpman & Anna Pinnock (Life Of Pi)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Who Will Win: Jacqueline Durran (Anna Karenina)
Who Should Win: Jacqueline Durran (Anna Karenina)

BEST MAKEUP
Who Will Win: Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell (Les Miserables)
Who Should Win: Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)

BEST SOUND MIXING
Who Will Win:  Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes (Les Miserables)
Who Should Win:  Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes (Les Miserables)

BEST SOUND EDITING
Who Will Win: Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton (Life Of Pi)
Who Should Win: Paul N.J. Ottoson (Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Who Will Win: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott (Life Of Pi)
Who Should Win: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott (Life Of Pi)

 

President's Day Weekend Predictions

 

 Note that these predictions are for the 4-day weekend.

1. A Good Day To Die Hard - $39.6m (NEW) - $11,145 PTA
2. Safe Haven - $26.3m (NEW) - $8,155 PTA
3. Identity Thief - $23.9m (-30.8%) - $7,551 PTA
4. Escape From Planet Earth - $15.7m (NEW) - $4,775 PTA
5. Beautiful Creatures - $15.5m (NEW) - $5,254 PTA
6. Warm Bodies - $8.4m (-26%) - $2,830 PTA
7. Silver Linings Playbook - $7.2m (+12.1%) - $3,270 PTA
8. Side Effects - $6.5m (-30.1%) - $2,495 PTA
9. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters - $3.9m (-32.2%) - PTA Unknown
10. Zero Dark Thirty - $3.1m (-22.6%) - $2,036 PTA

We've got four new releases this weekend, each with some box office potential. Will these four live up to it?

First, we have A Good Day To Die Hard, the fifth installment to the classic action franchise. Bruce Willis is back as John McClean, and he's going to Russia this time. Unfortunately, the film's been critically panned so far, with a pathetic 12% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences defied the critics' warnings with Identity Thief last weekend, so it should be likely that A Good Day To Die Hard is safe from box office harm. However, whether or not it has any staying power will depend on word of mouth. Taken 2 seems like the best comparison, so expect this fifth installment to finish with around $110m-$120m.

Safe Haven, the adaption of the Nicholas Sparks novel, was also cruelly treated by the critics. However, young women will still swoon over this movie, and it's exploding on online social networking websites. Johj Duhmael and Julianne Hough don't have the same star power as Channing Tatum, Amanda Seyfried, Rachel McAdams, etc., but expect a decent run for this. However, a high share of its five day gross is coming from tonight, the day of love.

Third in the line-up is Beautiful Creatures, a young adult fantasy featuring magical people, southern accents, and excessive scenery chewing. Safe Haven is probably going to steal a good share of the audience away from this, so it'll be hard pressed to become the next big young adult phenomenon. In fact, I doubt that we'll get another Hunger Games/Twilight/Harry Potter like franchise until Divergent. Still, it's fair to expect a modest run around a high teens/low 20s 5-day weekend and a total around $40m-$50m.

Finally, there's Escpae From Planet Earth, an animated movie from an independent studio. The fact that it comes out tomorrow and there's not even a single review up probably means that it's a stinker, but families might be less picky considering how they haven't had a certain family audience film since Rise of the Guardians. Don't expect a Gnomeo-esque run for this, but decent numbers are still in the cards for this.