Spaghetti's Top 10 Picks For The Fall: Part 2

Let's finish what we started!

5. Seven Psychopaths (dir. Martin McDonagh) - October 12th



 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOsd5d8IVoA

Martin McDonagh, director of the brilliant In Bruges , looks to strike again with this twisted comedy about a crazy dilemma involving a stolen Shih Tzu. Just by watching the trailer, you can tell that this is going to be a crazy good time. Plus - With a cast like that, how could you possibly go wrong? McDonagh's films were never a big box office hit, but if this is as good as we're hoping, you can be sure that it will have fans for a long time.

4. Looper (dir. Rian Johnson) - September 28th



 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uIWGOKW5OM

As a sucker for cerebral sci-fis with unique premises, as well as Joseph Gordon Levitt, this film looks to be pretty awesome. The premise involves an illegal use of time travel where future criminals send their targets to the present, where loopers (like Levitt's character) kill them. However, things get interesting when Levitt has to kill his future self. People who enjoy thinking at the movies will probably get a kick out of this film, so I'm definitely looking forward to this.

3. Argo (dir. Ben Affleck) - October 12th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w918Eh3fij0

After the Town and Gone Baby Gone, Ben Affleck has proven himself as a director, and his newest film has an awesome premise: Using a fake movie to extract hostages in Iran during the Cold War of the seventies. Oh, and it's based on a true story. With a great cast (Afflect, Bryan Cranston, Alan Arkin, & John Goodman) and an inticing plotline, this film has the potential to be another big success, just like The Town was in 2010.

2. Frankenweenie (dir. Tim Burton) - October 5th



As someone who can relate to losing a pet, this film already has me at its emotional core, not to mention a brilliant style of stop motion animation that only Tim Burton could deliver. It may not be a big box office smash, but expect a lot of Sparky shirts coming to your local Hot Topic.

1. The Master (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson) - September 14th



Paul Thomas Anderson. Need I say more?

Weekend Predictions: August 17-19

 

1. The Expendables 2 - $40m - $12,055 PTA
2. Sparkle - $15m - $6,844 PTA
3. The Borune Legacy - $14.4m (-62.2%) - $3,837 PTA
4. ParaNorman - $13.5m - $3,937 PTA
5. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $12.3m - $4,734 PTA
6. The Campaign - $11.8m (-55.6%) - $3,625 PTA
7. The Dark Knight Rises - $10.8m (-43.1%) - $3,421 PTA
8. Hope Springs - $9.2m (-37.2%) - $3,897 PTA
9. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $4.2m (-47.5%) - $1,535 PTA
10. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $3.6m (-43.6%) - $1,583 PTA






With a slew of new openers, it should be a pretty interesting weekend at the box office, including the hyped up sequel to 2010's hit film The Expendables, Whitney Houston's final film, a stop motion animation from the makers of Coraline, and a feel good family film to round out the summer.

The Expendables 2, the film that should have no struggle to win the weekend, as it has plenty of promising signs, with an even more bad ass cast, (Chuck Norris and Jean Claude Van Damme included) better reviews than the first, and huge buzz all over the place. However, there's also the possibility of action movie fatigue, after opening right after Total Recall and The Bourne Legacy. Still, everything else is pointing to this out grossing the first film, so it's pretty much going to be bigger, badder, and better in every way. This trend starts with its opening weekend.

Sparkle, the final film of Whitney Houston after she died earlier this year, is a remake of the film of the same name, this time casting American Idol winner Jordin Sparks as the titular character. The surprise leader of Fandango ticket sales this week, this film should also have definite appeal to older and African American audiences. Most people are thinking that Bourne will take the #2 spot this weekend, but I have a feeling that this will beg to differ.

ParaNorman, a horror film for kids, comes from the intricate world of stop motion animation. As the widest release Focus Features has ever pulled out by far, as well as a marketing campaign that started a year ago with a trailer in front of Puss In Boots, Focus Features has big confidence in this film. Buzz is also pretty lively, which is hard for a kids' film to pull off. Unfortunately, online ticket sales are kind of low, another rarity for a kids film, but it should still pull off a healthy opening weekend. As someone who wants to see it, I'm hoping that it goes higher than what I predicted.

Finally, The Odd Life Of Timothy Green had a solid start on Tuesday, especially with an A- Cinemascore coming off a 2.3m weekday. It probably won't recieve the same Friday boost as Hope Springs, though, due to the greater awareness of its Wednesday opening, but it should still carry on to a solid weekend.

Holdover wise, The Bourne Legacy will lose some audiences to the iffy WOM it had and The Expendables, as would Batman to a lesser extent, and The Campaign will probably drop closely to Dinner For Schmucks. It's not having the WOM needed to secure a better hold.

85.35% accuracy - Better than last week, but it could be more awesome. :|

Spaghetti's Top 10 Picks For The Fall: Part 1

With so many new movies coming out this fall, it's important to be a little discerning. In order, here are the top 10 films to see this fall!

10. Taken 2 (dir. Oliver Megaton) - October 5th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpaT8NzkLgE

Some people never learn from their mistakes. After Liam Neeson kicked their asses, these idiots want revenge and kidnap his wife. I guess that Liam Neeson has to do it all over again, now. Also, the daughter  (Maggie Grace) who was kidnapped in the first movie is also on the run, so we may get to see her body count, too. It'll struggle to get past the insane $145m that the first film made in January of 2009, but we can probably be sure that this movie is going to be totally awesome.

9. The Perks Of Being A Wallflower (dir. Stephen Chbosky) - September 21st (limited)



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5rh7O4IDc0

Based on a popular book, this teen comedy shows the life of an introverted teen (Logan Lerman) finally managing to make some friends. (Emma Watson and  Ezra Miller - in a much less creepy role than We Need To Talk About Kevin) I've always been a sucker for smaller-scale and teen comedies, so this could be a pretty great film if done right - that, and the cast looks pretty good. It also has some breakout potential, based on the fans of the novel wanting to see it.

8. Trouble With The Curve (dir. Robert Lorenz) - September 21st



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTHSqutzOcQ

As awesome as he is, Clint Eastwood has been a little off these past few years in the directors chair, but maybe Robert Lorenz, who worked with him for a while, can pull this off. After an aging baseball scout's eyes go bad, he brings his daughter (Amy Adams) on a scouting trip. The movie also stars Justin Timberlake & John Goodman, so it's a pretty solid cast. As something of a slight baseball fan, the story also looks pretty appealing. It has potential to be a good afternoon at the movies, if everything goes right, even if it probably won't pull a Moneyball on us.

7. Killing Them Softly (dir. Andrew Dominik) - October 19th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDyaNnrgdp4

Everything about this movie, from the trailer to the poster, looks slick and stylish. From the director of the well recieved Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford comes a new crime thriller involving the investigation of a heist crossed with the mob. I haven't seen it, but everything about this movie looks pretty great, and word from Cannes has definitely been positive. I'll have this on my radar for sure when it comes out. Plus, the cast is pretty great - Brad Pitt, James Gandolfini, Richard Jenkins, and Ray Liotta.

6. Cloud Atlas (dir. Larry & Lana Wachowski and Tom Twyker) - October 26th

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWnAqFyaQ5s

An incredibly ambitious film from the Wachowskis, (The Matrix, Speed Racer) and Tom Twyker (Run Lola Run) Cloud Atlas looks to be a saga of humanity, interweaving several stories from the past, present, and future, each action with several consequences to be felt in the future. With a huge ensemble playing multiple roles - Tom Hanks, Halle Berry, Hugo Weaving, Jim Broadbent, Hugh Grant, Keith David, and more - the scale is just huge for the film (which is 164 minutes long!) This film has huge potential to be either a fantastic examination of human kind, or a complete disastrous mess. Here's to hoping that it will be the former.

Check back tomorrow for the top five!

August 8-10 Prediction: Will Batman Lose His Crown?

1. The Bourne Legacy - $33m - ~$9,167 PTA
2. The Campaign - $26m - ~$8,000 PTA
3. The Dark Knight Rises - $20.6m (-42.4%)
4. Hope Springs - $16m ($22m 5-day) - $6,777 PTA
5. Total Recall - $11.9m (-53.5%)
6. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $6.5m (-55.6%)
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift  - $5.6m (-35%)
8. The Watch - $3.3m (-49.4%)
9. Ted - $3.3m (-41.5%)
10. Step Up: Revolution - $2.8m(-52.8%)
-Nitro Circus 3D: The Movie - $0.5m ($0.7m 5-day) - ~$625 PTA




It's likely that The Dark Knight Rises will no longer keep its crown. However, it's also likely that none of the openers will truly break out, personally. None of them have entered the Fandango Top 5, though this is likely more alarming for Bourne, which is less likely to has as many walkups as the other openers.

The Bourne Legacy, the fourth film in the Bourne franchise, and the first not to star Matt Damon, drops on Friday, but it may not even pass The Bourne Identity's adjusted $37m opening weekend. There is certainly online buzz  and definite interest, but not enough for it to must big business. In fact, figures aren't even much higher than Total Recall. However, I will give it the benefit of the doubt by having goodwill from the trilogy. However, what's troubling is the fact that reviews are being embargoed until tomorrow, a bad sign for any movie quality wise. However, that's more likely to affect it in the long run, if at all. The Dark Knight Rises and Total Recall may drop a little more than otherwise expected as a result of a new and highly anticipated action film entering the market.

The Campaign's not likely to get past Ferrel's past comedies, unfortunately, but it should still merit a decent opening weekend. Online buzz is relatively weak, especially on twitter, but I have a feeling that this may attract more older audiences by the political pull coming from the nearby election with Romney Vs. Obama. Reviews are pretty solid at this point, so that may help word of mouth to keep it alive throughout the rest of the summer. Overall, I don't see this opening higher than Step Brother's 30m take, Ferrel's last R-rated comedy for the summer, but it won't pull a Semi-Pro either.

Rounding out the openers, we have the two that opened today. Hope Springs & Nitro Circus 3D. Hope Springs screams late summer success, with its likeable cast led by Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones, & Steve Carrell, as well as surprisingly solid reviews. It won't make a big splash right away, but with a little push, it could approach Julie & Julia's impressive 90m+ total. As for Nitro Circus, well, nobody seems to know that it exists. As a result, expect terrible numbers.

EDIT: Accuracy was 79.22%. I guess people knew that Nitro Circus existed.

August 3-5 Predictions: Heffley Vs. Hauser

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $33.6m (-45.9%)
2. Total Recall - $23m (~$6,765 PTA)
3. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $19.5m (~$6,290 PTA)
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $7.4m (-44.5%)
5. The Watch - $6.4m (-49.8%)
6. Step Up: Revolution - $5.6m (-52.3%)
7. Ted - 4.9m (-33.4%)
8. The Amazing Spider-Man - 4.3m (-35.8%)
9. Brave - 2.5m (-41.9%)
10. Magic Mike - 1.5m (-42.7%)





After a slow weekend outside of The Dark Knight Rises, two new openers could get into the 20s range for the weekend. These two films are the Total Recall remake with Colin Farrell and the next installment of the Wimpy Kid series. Still, neither one will be able to overtake the bat.

First up, we have the remake of Total Recall, based off the 1990 hit with Arnold Schwarzenegger. The film stars Farrell, as well as Jessica Biel, Kate Beckinsdale, and Bryan Cranston. The film was bumped down to a PG-13 rating, rather than the original's R rating, but scaled up to a big budget of as much as 200m. It may save face internationally, but there's not much hope for it to break out here. Internet buzz is not as high as it should be, and it's only at #5 on The Fandango Top 5 as of Wednesday. At least that should prevent a complete failure, but it's going to need more steam to be "successful." Expect a number from the mid to low 20s. This will probably end up like John Carter & Battleship, where the film is a domestic flop, but it saves some face overseas. Also, could Spider-Man benefit from fudging/double features? Possibly.

Next up is Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, the third installment of the Wimpy Kid saga, and the first to be released during the summer. (It's actually based on the 4th book. They just skipped over The Last Straw, the third book in the series.) The first two installments have consistently performed in the low 20s, but failed to get past a 3x multiplier. Expect the same for this installment, but perhaps a smaller opening, potentially in the high teens. However, family films like Wimpy Kid typically have better weekdays over the summer, so that should help legs a little bit. Also, the new family film may affect Ice Age 4 and Brave a little bit, so don't expect the same drops it had last weekend.

Of course, we have The Dark Knight Rises, likely to win its third consecutive weekend a la Inception and The Dark Knight. Weekdays are already getting close to passing the -50% threshold, and should make a sub 50% drop very likely, let alone doable. I'm guessing that it drops to 7m today and slightly decreases tommorow. If it increases at least 45% on Friday, it could get to as high as 35m for the weekend.

Coming Soon: Spaghetti's Fall Movie Preview!

EDIT: Accuracy was 89.13%. Damn you, Wimpy Kid.

July Recap

July 6 - 89.29%
July 13 - 91.91%
July 20 - 75.44%
July 27 - 94.15%
Average - 87.70%

Me gusta.

July 27-28: Doom & Gloom

After last weekend's horrifying turn of events, the entire field of box office was effected. With the incident still lingering and the excitement of the Olympic opening ceremony, it's unlikely to see the entire market rebound this weekend.

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $62.5m (-61.2%)
2. The Watch - $14.8m (~$4,933 PTA)
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $12.8m (-37.3%)
4. Step Up: Revolution - $11.5m (~$4,600 PTA)
5. The Amazing Spider-Man - 6.3m (-42.1%)
6. Ted - 6.1m (-39.1%)
7. Brave - 4m (-33.6%)
8. Magic Mike - 2.6m (-39.4%)
9. Savages - 1.7m (-50%)
10. Moonrise Kingdom - $1.4m (-23.5%)

Despite winning the weekend without breaking a sweat, The Dark Knight Rises will still tumble. The film's weekday holds have been not so great, performing on the lower end of expectations. The shooting at Aurora hasn't left anyone's minds yet, (Frankly, I'd be concerned if it did) and WOM for this is strong, but not enough so to get it through any disaster. That, and you have the highly anticipated Olympics starting with the opening ceremony tomorrow night. It's pretty disappointing how bleak things have gotten.

The Watch is not in a position to break out. Despite a few good reactions to the trailer, interest has never been too high, especially since it still has to face TDKR's second weekend. Take that with limited online buzz, and a comparison point to the dissapoint 2011 flick, The Change Up, I don't see this being very successful. Finally, we have Step Up Revolution, the 3D fourquel to the franchise. Fourquels typically disappoint from their predecessors, and this should be no exception. Small buzz for the genre online, as well as a generally depressed market. Too bad, so sad.