Saturday, January 12, 2013

My Top 10 Movies Of 2012 (Part 1)

Well, I guess that it's time to reveal my top 10 movies of 2012. Most critics and publications have released theirs by now, but I still had to catch up on a few movies. There are some that I didn't get the chance to see before the creation of this list, most notably Holy Motors and Amour, but I've still seen enough to have a solid foundation of my list.

Warning: Some of my blurbs contain minor spoilers.

10. Life Of Pi (Directed by Ang Lee)

 
Ang Lee's wonderous adaption of Yann Martel's seemingly un-adaptable novel was truly a marvel of filmmaking. The thing I loved most about this film was its two messages. The first was that there are many stories in this world (such as what Pi Patel has been through) that are worth telling. The inclusion of Pi telling his story while it occurs is a familiar tactic in films, but it works brilliantly here. Secondly, Pi was able to find faith and hope even in the most adverse of situations. I feel like it was less about pure religion and more about hope, somewhat like The Shawshank Redemption. My one minor quibble was that while the film was certainly pretty, it was a little bit excessive at times. That was somewhat distracting. Having said that, this is still a wonderful film, one deserving of its nomination for Best Picture.
 
9. The Master (Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson)


 Paul Thomas Anderson is quite the director. His attention to detail and his eye for the time period is strongly evident in his Scientology allegory. This story of Freddie Quirrel (who is given a brilliant performance by Joaquin Phoenix, earning himself a deserved Oscar nomination) and his experiences with a charismatic leader of a rising movement (played by Phillip Seymour Hoffman, who gives another fantastic performance) and his wife (played by Amy Adams, and do I even need to say it?)  This film builds to an ending that may leave some audience members leaving the theater feeling dissatisfied, but conveys a significant message about how Freddie's experience did little to change him. It's definitely a film that you appreciate more over time.

8. Les Miserables (Directed by Tom Hooper)

  

Quite possibly the biggest explosion of feels in 2012, Les Miserables is a pulpy, bombastic, marvelous experience. This is helped by the fantastic ensemble, most notably Hugh Jackman as ex-convict Jean Vaijean, Anne Hathway as poor factory worker Fantine, and Samantha Banks (a newcomer to film) as Eponine, a young girl who finds redemption in the midst of a revolution. The songs aren't quite as strong as you would get with broadway voices, but all of the actors nail the emotional intensity. Tom Hooper's direction works most of the time, although the cinematography was disappointing, with excessive close-ups. WE GET IT, TOM HOOPER. THESE ARE SAD PEOPLE. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO SHOW US ALL OF THEIR TEARS! Having said that, I love this movie.


7. Looper (Directed by Rian Johnson)


One of the most inventive, smart, and entertaining sci-fi films of the 21st century, Looper is one of those films that must be experienced. The film asks the question, "What would happen if you met your future self, but you actually had to kill him or her?"  Joseph Gordon Levitt is as charming as ever, and the supporting cast is also strong. The key to the film's success is Rian Johnson's brilliant script, which was unfortunately snubbed at the Oscars. Johnson tells an exciting sci-fi story with slick action, humor, drama, and some definite surprises. We don't get films like this all of the time, so I recommend that all of you see this movie (and it's on DVD, so I'll rephrase my original statement: See this movie NOW.)

6. Lincoln (Directed by Steven Spielberg)


It seemed too good to be True: Steven Spielberg directing to story of our 16th president, with an all star cast. I was convinced that it was going to dissapoint. Lo and behold, it did nothing of the sort. Lincoln combines fantastic filmmaking, brilliant performances, and a sharp script to create a fine political drama. Daniel Day Lewis is truly a chameleon. He dissolves into his role as Abraham Lincoln, and he completely nails it. I don't think this guy could give a bad performance if his life depended on it. On top of that, you've got people like Tommy Lee Jones, Sally Field, Joseph Gordon Levitt, Hal Holbrook, and so much more. Lincoln is a truly marvelous experience, and I've got no problem with this film winning Best Picture.

Top 5 coming tomorrow!

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Spaghetti's Oscar Predictions!


With the announcement of Oscar nominations coming surprisingly early this year, (tomorrow!) it's probably time to do my Oscar predictions. Followed below is my predictions for the outcome of each category, with comments on my predictions for the more highly regarded awards. Enjoy!

My personal picks should come this weekend, once I get to see Zero Dark Thirty.

BEST PICTURE
Argo
Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

I think that there's going to be a full 10 nominees this year. Argo, Les Miserables, Life Of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty seem like safe guesses. Django will probably get in too, considering the success that Basterds had, and how reception to this is similar, albeit not quite as strong. Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts have gotten the important Critic's Choice and Producers Guild awards, so they should be able to sneak in. Skyfall will probably sneak in, because it seems to be the blockbuster favorite of the year.

BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ang Lee (Life Of Pi)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

The fifth spot for me was between Ang Lee and David O. Russel for Silver Linings Playbook. I decided to give it to Ang Lee because of the more unique style that Lee brought in adapting this. He also got in at the globes over Russel. Hooper will probably get in, considering how they loved his style in The King's Speech. Les Mis will probably hit the right notes with these guys, too. (No pun intended.) Affleck, Bigelow, and Spielberg are pretty obvious.

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)

Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

This was a pretty easy category to predict. The fact that all five of these actors got nominated for an SAG is also promising. This seems like a strong line-up.

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Riva could probably be overtaken by Mirren, but Amour has gotten a lot of raves, and the Academy might want to recognize the prestige of the legendary French actress. The other four have been consistently nominated, so expect easy nominations for them.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 
Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Any of the supporting roles in Django Unchained, most notably Waltz, has a chance of sneaking in here, but these are probably safe bets for the Oscar. Having said that, I'll predict him anyway. I'm a rebel like that. The academy often likes giving supporting actor nods to big films which can't often get bigger nominations. Examples include Bridesmaids, The Dark Knight, and Tropic Thunder. Bardem also has an Oscar, so his name has extra prestige here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (The Master)
Judi Dench (Skyfall)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Judi Dench may make for another nod for Skyfall, which may surprise us tommorow! With Field, Hathaway, and Hunt essentially locks for nominations, it's between Amy Adams and Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) for the last spot. I gave the edge to Adams, because support for The Master is light, but passionate.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

I'd love to see Looper sneak in an Oscar nomination here, but Amour seems more likely to snag the last spot. Both Andersons, Boal, and Tarantino are no strangers to this category, so expect easy nods for the other four films.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook

Much like the other screenplay category, and most categories I've discussed, actually, we have four locks and a duel for the last spot. It's between Beasts Of The Southern Wild, The Sessions, and Perks Of Being A Wallflower. I decided to give it to the Sessions because I'm not certain that Perks is really going to click with a lot of the academy members, and Beasts specialized in direction rather than screenplay, at least in my opinion.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Before My Time" (Chasing Ice)
"Learn Me Right" (Brave)
"Skyfall" (Skyfall)
"Suddenly" (Les Miserables)
"Touch The Sky" (Brave)

BEST FILM EDITING
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

BEST ART DIRECTION
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life Of Pi
Lincoln

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror, Mirror

BEST MAKEUP
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln

BEST SOUND MIXING
Les Miserables
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SOUND EDITING
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life Of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise Of The Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph


BEST FOREIGN FEATURE
Amour
The Intouchables
Kon-Tiki
No
A Royal Affair


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Detropia
The Gatekeepers
How To Survive A Plauge
The Invisible War
Searching For Sugar Man

--------------------------

NOMINEE COUNT
Lincoln - 13
Les Miserables - 11
Life Of Pi - 8
Skyfall - 8
Zero Dark Thirty - 8
Silver Linings Playbook - 5
Django Unchained - 5
Argo - 4
Anna Karenina - 4
Django Unchained - 4
Amour - 3
Brave - 3
The Master - 3
Beasts Of The Southern Wild - 2
Moonrise Kingdom - 2
The Sessions - 2
Cloud Atlas - 2
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 2
The Dark Knight Rises - 2
Marvel's The Avengers - 1
Chasing Ice - 1
Flight - 1
Rust & Bone - 1
The Impossible - 1
Frankenweenie - 1
ParaNorman - 1
Rise Of The Guardians - 1
Wreck-It Ralph - 1
The Intouchables - 1
Kon-Tiki  - 1
No  - 1
A Royal Affair - 1

Detropia - 1
The Gatekeepers - 1
How To Survive A Plauge - 1
The Invisible War - 1
Searching For Sugar Man - 1
Mirror, Mirror - 1


Friday, January 4, 2013

Weekend Predictions: January 4-6

1. Texas Chainsaw 3D - $20.5m
2.The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $18.2m
3. Django Unchained - $18.2m
4. Les Miserables - $16.1m
5. Parental Guidance - $9.4m
6. Jack Reacher - $8.6m
7. This Is 40 - $8.2m
8. Lincoln - $5.1m
9. The Guilt Trip - $4.2m
10. Promised Land - $4m
-The Impossible - $2m
-Not Fade Away - $0.9m

Apparently the word "massacre" is too much for the first wide release of 2013. That's right, it's Texas Chainsaw 3D. Horror plus 3D plus famous franchise? What could possibly go wrong? Indeed, it's probably going to get some business. Twitter buzz has been huge, albeit having a positive:negative ratio of 1:1. However, the holdovers are still doing just fine, so maybe they might steal thunder from Texas Chainsaw. Either way, with WOM being iffy so far, don't expect any good legs for this reboot.

Django Unchained and Les Miserables will each cross $100m this weekend, and they're on their way to do even more, especially of both earn Best Picture nominations. Les Mis will probably end around $140m-$150m, while Django, if current patterns hold up, has a slight chance to outdo True Grit's massive $170m take back in 2010.

Promised Land has minimal buzz, and it lacks strong reviews for Oscar attention. It has a relatively strong theater count, but even Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy numbers seem unlikely for this. The Impossible could have done moderately well this weekend, but Summit should have released it on more theaters. (It's not even a wide release!) Seriously, Perks of Being a Wallflower and now this? What are the distributors smoking here? Not Fade Away....if it couldn't even be a hit in platform release, it's not looking good for its pseudo-wide release.


Tuesday, January 1, 2013

SMAP: Bigger And Better For 2013!

Sorry it's been a while. I'm going to try and post more during this next year. Fortunately, I've got a lot of surprises for January. These include my personal picks for the best movies of 2013, oscar predictions, and of course, more weekend predictions.

My top picks of 2013 will come as soon as I see Zero Dark Thirty and/or Silver Linings Playbook. (I'm not a fancy critic, so I have to wait and see it at my local cineplex on January 11th. Talk about a first world problem.)

Oscar predictions will be coming sometime this week. I had no idea that they were being announced next week!


Thursday, November 29, 2012

Will Pitt's Latest Open "Softly?" Probably.

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part II - $17.6m (-59.7%)
2. Skyfall - $16.5m (-53.5%)
3. Lincoln - $15.2m (-40.8%)
4. Life Of Pi - $12.4m (-44.8%)
5. Rise Of The Guardians - $12m (-49.5%)
6. Wreck-It Ralph - $7m (-57.8%)
7. Killing Them Softly - $6.7m (NEW) - $2,764 PTA
8. Red Dawn - $5.9m (-58.7%)
9. Flight - $4.6m (-45.6%)
10.Silver Linings Playbook - $2.8m (-36.1%)
-The Collector - $1.5m (NEW) - $1,069 PTA

Yeah...this is going to be a slow weekend.

Breaking Dawn is pretty much behaving as any Twilight film would be at this point. It's following Breaking Dawn Part 1 pretty closely, so expect a similar hold of around 60% over the post Thanksgiving weekend. However, Skyfall and Lincoln are still riding waves of powerful reception, and both may be able to get past the tween event by next weekend. Life Of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook should also have good holds, thanks to strong WOM and oscar buzz. Finally, expect Rise Of The Guardians to hold better than most family films on this weekend, due to its strength as a holiday film, and their relative immunity to this weekend's curse.

Killing Them Softly, despite strong viral buzz with a series of fake posters, (It's quite ironic how the official poster that they went with is by far the worst and least creative.) strong reception from its initial screening at Cannes 2012, has marketing that has been nonexistent. If it weren't for the surprisingly high flixster rating and Brad Pitt's name (Andrew Dominik also has a small, but devoted following from 2007's The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), I'd have it at an even lower gross than I already do. Still, we can expect this to at least make some money, but if this is really a disaster, it'll be pretty evident as to why.

The Collector is probably going to also end up dead on arrival. Reviews aren't quite stellar, and the marketing has been totally muted. On top of that, Horror movies rarely find any success when released after Halloween, so this film looks to be doomed from the start.


Wednesday, November 21, 2012

I'm Back! Thanksgiving Weekend Predictions

 

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part II - $42.3m (-70%)
2. Skyfall - $30.9m (-24.8%)
3. Rise Of The Guardians - $27.5m (NEW) - $7,528 PTA
4. Lincoln - $19.3m (-8.3%)
5. Wreck-It Ralph - $15.1m (-18.7%)
6. Life Of Pi - $14.7m  (NEW) - $5,482 PTA
7. Red Dawn - $11.3m (NEW) - $4,147 PTA
8. Flight - $7.2m (-18.2%)
9. The Silver Linings Playbook - $3.5m (+690%)
10. Argo - $2.9m (-28.3%)

These are for the three-day weekend, by the way.

So....it's finally Thanksgiving weekend. We've got an interesting line up of films this weekend: A new film by DreamWorks Animation, an action remake of the first PG-13 movie ever made, and an adaptation of a critically acclaimed novel. Of course, we also have Twilight's second weekend, so there's that. Twilight was actually the easiest film to predict so far. Despite having the draw of being the final Twilight film, (cue sighs of relief from men everywhere) it's behaving pretty much like any other Twilight film would. Thus, expect a hefty drop around 70%, just like Breaking Dawn II and New Mon.

Rise Of The Guardians has been frequently described as a kiddie Avengers. We've got Soviet Santa, an Austrailian Easter Bunny, a tooth fairy that apparently resembles a human/hummingbird hybrid, a mute sandman, and an angsty Jack Frost. This film has been recieving iffy prospects for a while now. The marketing is very weak, and the look of the film, particularly in the characters, seems to be turning off people as well. However, Dreamwork's name will prevent this from being a total disaster. They've never had a CGI film open under 30m since Antz, and that came out nearly 15 years ago! However, it looks like Guardians will be the first. From this day on, no animated film will be made with the word "Guardians" in the title.

Life Of Pi, the story of a religious boy who becomes stranded at sea with a vicious predator, has been getting a lot of Oscar buzz. The big budget film directed by Ang Lee, (Brokeback Mountain, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon) is a big contender not just for Picture, but also for several tech nods, based on the amazing visuals captured in the film's trailer. However, the concept would still be a bit of a hard sell to general audiences. Much like Hugo last year, it'll need strong WOM (which it'll probably get) to stay afloat over the rest of the season. Sorry for the pun.

The final opener this weekend is Red Dawn, a film that's been in release hell for a while. It was originally going to come out two years ago! However, the fact that its main stars are now known as Thor and Peeta Mallark, it could attract more teens and young adults to the theater. Buzz is also high in this demographic, albeit not elsewhere. Expect a modest run for this film.

I may be a little bullish on the holds for Lincoln and Skyfall, but these films are having incredible word of mouth, and they could end up having some pretty great holds this weekend. Wreck-It Ralph will be challenged by Guardians, but there should still be a big family draw for that. Also, Silver Linings Playbook may not expand quite like The Descendants did last year, but it should still do pretty well.



Thursday, October 18, 2012

October 19-21 Predictions: Paranormal & Patterson

1. Paranormal Activity 4 - $42.5m (NEW) - $12,456 PTA
2. Alex Cross - $15.2m (NEW) - $5,986 PTA
3. Argo - $13.7m (-29.6%) - $4,219 PTA
4. Taken 2 - $13.1m (-40.1%) - $3,755 PTA
5. Hotel Transylvania - $12.2m (-29.2%) - $4,048 PTA
6. Here Comes The Boom - $7.4m (-37.4%) - $2,455 PTA
7. Sinister - $6.7m (-62.8%) - $2,636 PTA
8. Pitch Perfect - $6.4m (-30.9%) - $2,406 PTA
9. Frankenweenie - $4.9m (-30.5%) - $2,075 PTA
10. Looper - $3.9m (-37.1%) - $1,755 PTA

_________________________________________________________________

Well, it's that time of year again.

Paranormal Activity 4 is finally arriving into theaters, but it would be hard pressed to reach its predecessor's $52m opening weekend. If Saw was any indication, Paranormal Activity would have peaked with its third installment. (I'm talking about opening weekends. Saw 2 was the highest grosser.) In fact, most franchises suffer drops in fourth installments. Paranormal Activity 4 will still definitely be a big film, and social media is clearly pumped for this, but I'm not convinced that this film will break the fourth-film-curse. To make matters worse, it's getting pretty bleh early reactions. (PA1 and PA3 were actually fresh on the tomatometer, and PA2 barely missed it. PA4 is currently at 35%.) Critics don't always speak for general audiences, but this is probably a bad sign for WOM and staying power. It's almost locked to have under a 2x multiplier.

Alex Cross is the second wide release this week. Tyler Perry plays the titular James Patterson character who must track down Matthew Fox. (Between Cross, Jack Reacher, and Jack Ryan, Hollywood is probably going through a famous literary agent adaption phase.) While fans of the book and/or Tyler Perry and people seeking a good action movie will probably go see it, it will be hard pressed to break out. Early word of mouth, as well as reactions to the trailer, were not so pretty across the net. Also, Tyler Perry's general box office appeal is past its peak. (Madea's Witness Protection is the only exception, but that had summer weekdays to boost its gross.) Also, it will struggle to compete with Paranormal. Don't expect big numbers from this film. (And it's currently bombing on Rotten Tomatoes, as well.)

You may have also noticed some lower than normal drops for many PG-13 films. Let's fact it, many teenagers buy tickets to PG-13 movies to get into R-rated movies. A major one is coming this weekend. Expect the major beneficiaries to be Taken 2 and Pitch Perfect, and maybe Alex Cross to a lesser extent. In addition, Argo is having fantastic word of mouth, (Including an A+ CinemaScore!) while Sinister's buzz is weaker, and it's facing direct competition this weekend...