July 6-8: Spidey, Savages, & Pop Stars

1. The Amazing Spider-Man - $68.5m ($15,864 PTA)
2. Ted - $29.5m (-45.8%)
3. Brave - $19.6m (-42.5%)
4. Magic Mike - $13.3m (-66%)
5. Savages - $12m ($4,568 PTA)
6. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection - $9.9m (-61%)
7. Katy Perry: Part Of Me 3D - $8m ($2,930 PTA)
8. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $6.9m (-41.7%)
9. Moonrise Kingdom - $4.2m (-14.8%)
10. Marvel's The Avengers - $2.6m (-41.2%)





With The Amazing Spider-Man off to a great start from a 35m Tuesday, and despite a big dip on Tuesday, it should be off to a very successful weekend. Meanwhile, the other openers, despite good reviews, will fail to make a significant impression.

I'll be honest. I was wrong about the Amazing Spider-Man. I figured that this would get the boot after a superhero behemoth summer, (The Avengers & The Dark Knight Rises, primarily) as the other two had much more potential, but I guess the Spider-Man name is enough to draw in anyone, even without Raimi, MacGuire, and Dunst. Thus, the prediction at the top is based on what I've seen from weekly box office, and with some influence from Transformer's opening weekend in 2007. The weekdays line up perfectly with 2007, conveniently. Expect a weekend in the high 60s, if not low 70s.

Savages has been getting surprisingly decent-to-good reviews from critics, some calling it a return to form for famous director Oliver Stone. This hard-R look at the world of Mexican drug cartels may not seem like a crowd pleaser, but there is some interest. Having said that, I'm not sure that it will be able to compete against Spider-Man, plus it has box office poison Taylor Kitsch, coming off the financial failues of John Carter & Battleship. Fortunately, this one only cost $45m, so no fear of bombing. Still, it's not likely to make it back on the domestic run alone.

Katy Perry's new concert/documentary, Part Of Me, should have it worse. For every Justin Bieber and Miley Cyrus movie, we have a Jonas Brothers and Glee concert movie. Due to a low level of buzz, competing interests in the female market, (Brave, Magic Mike, probably Spider-Man,  etc.) and the fact that Katy Perry isn't quite as popular as Bieber, the movie will fall into the category of the latter. It got good reviews, though, but that's generally uncommon for films of this genre.

The two major holdovers from last weekend, Ted and Magic Mike, will probably have different experiences in holds. Ted is already shaping up to be a runaway hit, with over 80m in a week, and it should manage to avoid a 50% dip this weekend, despite the film's mammoth opening weekend last week (I knew it would be big, but I chickened out at the last minute. >_>) I'm not chickening out on Magic Mike dropping big, though. It's already showing signs of massive front loaded-ness (40%+ drops on Saturday and Wednesday-even Spider-Man dropped less!) A drop in the high 60s may be in store for this, and it doesn't have the runaway WOM needed to keep it from a big fall.

EDIT: 89.29% Accuracy this week, with a perfect score on Brave.