Labor Day 4-Day Weekend Predictions

This weekend, I'm also playing for a contest on BoxOffice.com to win a blu-ray of the summer's biggest loser: BATTLESHIP. (I'm doing it just for bragging rights, but I could get a few bucks by selling it on eBay.)

1. The Possession - $15m - ~$5,556 PTA
2. Lawless - $12.5m - $4,873 PTA
3. The Expendables 2 - $11.8m (-12.8%) - ~$3,487 PTA
4. 2016: Obama's America - $9.5m (+46%) - ~$5,428 PTA
5. ParaNorman - $8.9m (+3%) - $2,885 PTA
6. The Bourne Legacy - $8.7m (-6.8%) - $2,780 PTA
7. The Dark Knight Rises - $7.9m (+9.4%) - $3,613 PTA
8. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $7.4m (+3.9%) - $2,808 PTA
9. The Campaign - $7m (-6.3%) - $2,142 PTA
10. Hope Springs - $5.8m (+1.3%) - $2,376 PTA
-The Oogieloves In The Big Baloon Adventure - $1.2m - $556 PTA

Not much to talk about this week, other than a few key points:

-If Lawless follows suit with past labor day thrillers that opened on Wednesday (i.e. The American, The Debt, Traitor, etc.) it should easily get to a 4-day weekend over 10x from its 1.14m Wednesday start.

-The Possession has a decent amount of buzz this week, and that should be enough to propel it to the top spot, even if it won't catch on nearly as much as past found footage films, such as The Devil Inside, The Last Exorcism, and of course, Paranormal Activity.

-The Oogieloves had a terrible $100k Wednesday, but it could at least get over $1m for the 4-day weekend. Still, considering how $55m was spent on this stinker, mainly on marketing, too, don't expect Oogieloves 2 anytime soon.

Summer's Biggest Winners: Part 2

The last of the four part saga in which I recount the summer's biggest hits & misses. Let's finish this bad boy.

5. MAGIC MIKE - ~$150m Worldwide / $7m Budget

 Forget global warming. This caused the heat wave this summer.
 ---------------------------------------
Earlier this year, people thought this would hardly make a dent at the box office, seeing it as likely getting lost in the shuffle. However, female audiences are not to be underestimated. The idea of five muscular men (led by Channing Tatum, straight off of two box office hits, The Vow and 21 Jump Street) as male strippers in a movie that included graphic nudity in its MPAA rating must have got these audiences excited. The film, however, received a release on only one or two screens at most multiplexes. WB ended up underestimating this. On June 29th, the film yielded a $6.6k PTA, churning up a Friday of nearly $20m. Unfortunately, the weekend was rather front loaded, dropping a whopping 41% on Saturday to have an internal multiplier of just over 2x. The film had iffy weekend holds, but it held great on summer weekdays, similar to most films aimed at women over the summer. Not only was it a huge hit off of a $7m budget, it received surprisingly good reviews, thanks to Steven Soderbergh's surprisingly solid (heh, alliteration) direction. Another June 29th release was also popular, but we'll get to that later.

4. ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT - ~$825m Worldwide / $95m Budget

For some reason, he's an international celebrity.
--------------------------------
Blue Sky is one of the most profitable studios currently working in Bollywood, churning out  CGI movies for lower budgets after tax cuts for working in Connecticut. Their big franchise, Ice Age, continued this summer by introducing a new dynamic: prehistoric pirates. Sid, Diego, & Manny must face these new bad guys while the crazed Scrat still hunts for that coveted acorn. Granted, the film received average reviews, and it had the lowest gross for the franchise domestically. The fourth installment curse strikes again. However, they didn't just make this for American audiences. The series yields INSANE numbers overseas, thanks to the 3D advent and the exciting setting, but even that can't fully explain the ridiculously high numbers. Seriously, Ice Age 3 had the highest overseas take of every single animated film ever. 81% of the film's gross came from foreign countries. Match that with the several toys that it would probably sell, and Fox will struggle to count all the money that they're making off of this cash cow. Ice Age 5 will be just around the corner.

3. THE DARK KNIGHT RISES - ~$1b Worldwide / $250m Budget

When July 20th comes, Marvel, then you have my permission to die.
--------------------------------------
What set up do I need? It's the last installment of Christopher Nolan's epic Batman trilogy, placing him against the notorious Bane (Tom Hardy, who worked with Nolan in 2010's Inception.) Push come to shove, The Dark Knight Rises is mimicking what Toy Story 3 is going through, box office wise. The opening fell short of the massive expectations being thrown around, but most people are still going to be generally satisfied with the general result. Of course, one of the reasons for this film's struggle derives from one of the biggest tragedies of the year, one that no predictor could have possibly seen coming: the Aurora shootings. This event sent a shock wave to effect most remaining films in the summer - not just The Dark Knight Rises.
However, most weren't stopped from seeing what should have been the event of the summer, desperate to see how Nolan would end this saga. Overall, it gave a fantastic performance that could have been even better if unfair circumstances weren't brought into play.

2. TED - ~$400m Worldwide / $50m Budget

Moviegoers sure love some tasteful comedy over the summer.

-----------------------------------------
Seth MacFarlane  has a huge fanbase, after Family Guy, American Dad, and The Cleveland Show consistently score high rankings for Fox. Before he does a Family Guy movie, though, he brought the story of a crude, foul-mouthed, pot smoking teddy bear to the big screen. After warm reactions to the trailer in early April, (most likely attached to the disappointing American Reunion) people figured that this was going to be a hit. However, no one could have imagined how big it really was. Every summer has had a big comedy breakout since 2009: The Hangover, Grown Ups, Bridesmaids, and now Ted. The film brought in a whopping $54m opening weekend, proceeding to get nearly a 4x multiplier and cross $200m with ease. Better yet, the film performed better than most comedies do overseas, thanks to the international appeal of Family Guy. When all is said and done, this may very well be Universal's biggest film on its 100th anniversary, unless Les Miserables turns into a crazy breakout.

1. MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS - $1.5b Worldwide / $220m Budget

 It would have been awesome even if they showed only this still for 2.5 hours.
---------------------------
The highest grossing film of the summer both domestically and worldwide - and it wasn't even expected to be. After building up character development through five movies spread out across four years, (Iron Man got two movies, and Hawkeye only had a cameo in Thor, so it's not necessarily equal...) Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, The Hulk, Hawkeye, and Black Widow are finally united under Nick Fury, (Samuel L. Jackson) fighting to take on the forces of Loki, Thor's evil brother. If the idea of all these superheroes working together doesn't do it for you, maybe Joss Whedon, who delivered one of the summer's best scripts with this movie. (Honestly, I thought it was the funniest movie of the summer.) Indeed, the film made history right from the start. It had a jaw dropping opening weekend of over $200m, a record that will probably stick for a while, as well as a second weekend over $100m. Both records are the first for any film to do. The film was universally loved by Marvel fans, general audiences, and critics aline, yielding a whopping $1.5 billion dollar gross during the summer. The film even out grossed Titanic's original run, the only film to do so other than Avatar! Safe to say, The Avengers will stay with us for a while. Thor, Iron Man, and Cap will get their own sequels in the next two years, a new ABC series focusing on SHIELD could pilot next fall, and The Avengers will re-unite to take on Thanos in 2015. Finally, you can see The Avengers again this weekend, as it's returning to most theaters for Labor Day weekend.

That's all, folks!

Summer's Biggest Winners: Part 1

10. MEN IN BLACK 3 - ~$625m Worldwide / $225m Budget

Save that for when Total Recall opens, K.
-----------------------------------
It's pretty difficult to continue a series after a 10-year break, especially when your last film wasn't well received. MIB 3 still managed to do pretty well, despite what it had going against it. Sure, it was the lowest grossing installment of the franchise. And sure, Will Smith was past his peak. However, this film managed to hold solid footing amidst a crowded summer, including the franchise's highest overseas take, which was able to turn the film's high budget into a profit for Sony Pictures.  This is probably due in part to the appeal of the 3D format. Better yet, the film was a step up, quality wise, from the second film, which gets a lot of hate online. This third installment was generally liked, mainly thanks to Josh Brolin's spot on take as a younger version of Agent K. Sony Picture's happiness will continue with the next film on our list...

9. THE AMAZING SPIDER MAN - ~$715m Worldwide / $230m Budget
 
No comment.
--------------------------------
Rebooting a franchise in which the last installment was just five years ago is kind of an odd idea. I mean, MIB 3 had twice the wait, and they just continued as it was. Still, the new representation of Spider-Man, portrayed by The Social Network's Andrew Garfield and directed by Marc Webb ((500) Days of Summer), managed to be pretty successful. Much like MIB 3, which coincidentally was also distributed by Sony Pictures, the film became greatly profitable overseas, where 3D was more popular than it was in the states. The film was also generally well received by general audiences, despite poor reactions to the villanous Lizard's depiction, even scoring the rank of Certified Fresh on RottenTomatoes.com. Sony was so confident about the film, that they set the date for a 2014 sequel without even seeing how much this would make. Granted, it made less than than each film in Raimi's trilogy, but it still brought in a solid amount, and many will be looking forward to May of 2014.

8. MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE'S MOST WANTED - ~$590m Worldwide / $145m Budget

This picture was from a well reviewed movie that made nearly $600m Worldwide. Think about that.
-------------------------------------
First, let's agree not to mention "I Like To Move It." Alex, Marty, Gloria, & Melman are four of the most popular runaway animated animals of the moment. (I'm not sure if there are any others, though...) The films consistently delivered for children, albeit not as much for adults. Given the fact that Brave was coming up, and families were watching MIB 3 and The Avengers, many pundits saw a decline for the third installment. However, the film marked two highs for the series. Thanks to the lack of a major kids film since The Lorax, 3D premiums boosting ticket prices, and children laughing at the ad-naseum Circus Afro advertising, the film mustered up an impressive 60m opening. Better yet, the film held up, even against Brave, due to great word of mouth. Several agreed that it was actually a solid film, thanks to Noah Baumbach's co-written script and brilliant new characters. (Bryan Cranston, Jessica Chastain, and Martin Short as circus animals, and Frances McDormand as a twisted and relentless animal control officer.) The film pretty much surprised every one.

7. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL - $131m Worldwide / $10m Budget

This also works in depicting the average group that saw this in theaters.
--------------------------------------
Before it hit US shores, the motion picture event of the summer - for your grandparents - was already a bit hit in Europe, particularly the UK, home to most of the film's stars, such as Bill Nighy, Maggie Smith, & Judi Dench.  They all star as senior citizens traveling to India, particularly at the titular location run by Slumdog Millionaire's Dev Patel, and having life changing experiences.  With solid reviews and an appealing cast/concept, seniors were drawn to the movie, giving it a $27k PTA from 27 theaters. Fox Searchlight marked a quick expansion for the film, putting it in over 1,000 theaters on its fourth week. The film soon led to $45m Domestic, on top of the money it had already made in its international release. Thus, it narrowly received the rank of highest grossing indie release of the summer, but it's not quite the most impressive...

6. MOONRISE KINGDOM - $58m Worldwide / $16m Budget

Hipsters rejoice!
------------------------------------------------
Also my favorite movie of the summer, Moonrise Kingdom pulled off an impressive feat. Wes Anderson's style is pretty niche, and the idea of two children falling in love on a New England island in 1965 isn't exactly what people go to see in the summer. However, Anderson's fans were dedicated from the start. The film pulled off an incredible $130k PTA over it's 3-day weekend, the second highest for a live action film. (Red State still holds the record.) After a slow but steady expansion, the film exceeded $40m, lingering though the summer as the must see independent film. (Marigold Hotel sort of faded after June, despite its success.) Not only that, but it's also shaping up to be one of  the first Oscar contenders of the year, along with Beasts Of The Southern Wild & maybe The Dark Knight Rises. It's mimicking Midnight In Paris in many ways: Late may release, impressive OW PTA, expansion to around 1,000 theaters, and a total well above $40m. That also went on to get a Best Picture nod and a Best Screenplay win. Here's to hoping that Moonrise Kingdom can continue to shine when Oscar season comes around.

Summer's Biggest Losers: Part 2

No need to keep on waiting. Let's just get right to it.

5. DARK SHADOWS - $235m Worldwide / $150m Budget


Look at me! I'm Johnny Depp, being weird in a Burton movie! That'll bring in cash, right.....right?!
-------------------------------------
I suppose that it was kind of silly to expect too much of an adaption of a niche Gothic soap opera from the '60s, even if Burton and Depp were involved in it. That was probably the movie's only true saving grace, too. The film's marketing campaign started late (the trailer came out in March) due to Warner Bros' Confusion as to how to market the bloody thing. (No pun intended) Once the trailer came out, however, a slew of tv spots were everywhere, probably boosting the marketing budget marginally. The film ended up with mixed reactions from both critics and moviegoers, due to its inconsistent tone and its messy ending, causing it to fade from the charts. Worldwide, it saved some face, though, due to the appeal of Burton's name, but not enough to cancel out the massive budget.

4. TOTAL RECALL - ~$150m Worldwide / $125m Budget



Can you make me forget that I signed on to do this movie?
---------------------
Not even a girl with three breasts could save this bona-fide stinker. The remake of the hit 1990 film of the same name with Ah-nold Schwarzenegger didn't come close to its total when unadjusted let alone the opposite. Colin Farrel couldn't copy the same magic that he did there. The action film did little to stick out for itself in a frame where The Dark Knight Rises was still going strong, and The Bourne Legacy and The Expendables 2 were just around the corner. (These two films caused this to drop like a rock, especially with audiences not giving it remarkable word of mouth) It woudn't have been such a big problem if the budget weren't so high. (There were reports that the budget was $200m!) Though it's been confirmed to be a relatively reasonable $125m, Sony Pictures won't be seeing a large share of that money any time soon.

3. THE WATCH- ~$40m Worldwide / $68m Budget

Oh my god! We're losing to a freaking pot smoking teddy bear!
------------------------------------
This film once had potential. Ben Stiller was a generally bankable comedian. Jonah Hill was fresh off the good will from 21 Jump Street. Richard Ayoade has a small, but dedicate number of fans from "The IT Crowd" I'm sure that Vince Vaughn also has fans somewhere, too. The R-rated comedy faced trouble when people drew ties to it and the Trayvon Martin incident earlier this year, forcing Fox to change the title from "Neighborhood Watch." Now, they hardly had to worry about that, even though a few people were still turned off because of it. It ended up tanking due to simply not appealing to general audiences. The ads simply weren't that funny. The film became dead on arrival, likely causing serious losses for 20th Century Fox. Still, they're counting the foreign grosses of Ice Age 4, so they won't be worrying anytime soon.


2. THE FAILURES OF THE FIFTEENTH: ROCK OF AGES AND THAT'S MY BOY: ~$50m Worldwide / $70m-75m Budget

 I guess audiences stopped believing.
-----------------------------

Most people re-acted the same way to the actual movie, Andy.
--------------------------
Is it cheating to have an extra film on this list? Who cares? Besides, everything about these two films is nearly identical. They both are comedies, came out on June 15th, are led by stars probably past their prime, had high expectations, precedents set to justify these expectations, budgets around $70m, and final grosses of...well....not that much. Rock Of Ages was an adaption of the hit Broadway show, a jukebox musical of songs from the 80s, led by Tom Cruise being ultimate rock star Stacee Jaxx. Despite the successes of Hairspray & Mamma Mia, this film was an utter disaster. The ads did little to appeal outside of those who liked the music, and even then, the ads failed to spark a whole lot of interest. That's My Boy cast Sandler as a slacker who crashes his son's wedding. Oh, and his son was brought into the world as Sander had an affair with his Middle School teacher - while he was in Middle School. The main problem with this was its R-rating. Sandler had a lot of fans that were pretty young, and the reason movies like Grown Ups were successful, is that they were accessible to these younger audiences. The r-rating pushed away these younger moviegoers, leaving only a number of grown ups and teens that actually wanted to see this. Both movies fell off the map after a few weeks.

1. BATTLESHIP - $300m Worldwide / $209m Budget

 Cue the countdown for "Taylor Kitsch = Guaranteed Bomb" posts in 3, 2, 1...
----------------------------
At least it had an abnormal 79% share of tickets purchased overseas, where it was released early in April to strike before anything else was able to. This is pretty ironic, considering how the movie just screams: "America!" The 131 minutes of jingoism and Bay-style explosions failed to catch on. For one, people were laughing at the movie. The fact that it was a movie based off a board game simply caused people to ridicule it rather than want to see it. I'm not sure what Universal was thinking here. Secondly, there was this little film called The Avengers, and it pretty much create a black hole that sucked up every other film that came with it. Battleship was one of its major victims, as well as the previously mentioned Dark Shadows. The cast is actually pretty hilarious. Liam Neeson, the only really respectable person here. Rihanna, in her first major film role. Finally, there's Taylor Kitsch, straight off the hilarious bombing of John Carter. It's sad that even Savages won't make its budget back. Nothing will compare to this gargantuan bomb, though.

Winners coming tomorrow!

Summer 2012's Losers: Part 1

The summer is winding down now, so let's take a look at what the big hits, and misses, were for this summer.
Let's begin with the biggest losers. Note that these won't all be flops. Some will just have given disappointing runs or simply churned out flat-out terrible numbers.

10. PREMIUM RUSH - ~$20m Domestic / $35m Budget


If I get injured, the hospital charges will come out of this movie's entire gross.
---------------------------------
Not even Joseph Gordon Levitt, nor the presence of good reviews, could save this stinker. Joseph Gordon Levitt is barely breaking out as a star as it is, and headlining a movie with a steadily growing star can be dangerous, especially if no one else is a serious draw. The good reviews are actually a little surprising, considering how the film was pushed back from this past January. However, it was still likely that this wouldn't catch on, given that Sony kind of dumped it with a limited marketing campaign and a relatively low theater count. Learn this lesson, Hollywood: action movies with bicycle centered action are pretty tough sells.

9. HIT & RUN - ~$15m Domestic / $2m Budget

Oh no, it's the Open Road executives, and they're pissed. Run!!
------------------------
You'd think that with a half decent marketing campaign and a not completely terrible, (at the level of mixed reviews on RT) you wouldn't turn up a disaster, but Hit & Run managed to do just that. This doomed action comedy lacked any serious star power, came out on a slow weekend, and received limited marketing. (just like Premium Rush, which ironically came out on the same weekend.) Still, Open Road seemed to have faith in this, giving it a relatively large theater count on top of a move from the Friday to Wednesday to "build up word of mouth." They'll get their $2m budget back easily. (They already did, in fact.) Still, the marketing costs wouldn't have been justified, and the gross is completely terrible.

8. PEOPLE LIKE US - $12m Domestic / $16m Budget


Why did the new Star Trek movie get delayed for this, mommy?
------------------------------
It's hilariously tragic how this Chris Pine drama came out on the day that the Star Trek sequel was originally slated. This failed drama about a brother (Pine) and sister (Elizabeth Banks) who had never seen each other until now. The film was announced at the last minute, and it just kind of was there. No one really noticed that it existed. However, Touchstone & Dreamworks were so desperate that they focused on positive twitter reactions by general audiences, as well as the fact that it was from the same studio as last year's breakout hit, The Help. Studios need to realize that unless it's an animated film with an in house company (like The Lorax, Brave, etc.) that strategy isn't going to work.

7. SEEKING A FRIEND FOR THE END OF THE WORLD - $8m Worldwide / $10m Budget

Give us a break. We're in a financial disaster before this actual disaster.
------------------------------
This is probably just me, but the film seemed like it had a lot more potential box office wise than what was shown in the returns. Sure, the concept of the world ending is bleak, even if presented as a clever pseudo-independent comedy, but Steve Carell could have drawn in more people than what it did. Even with a small release of just over 1,600 theaters, it's not like Focus Features is stingy with theater counts. (ParaNorman was at nearly 3,500!) Instead, this became one of the lowest grossing wide releases of the summer, one they let fall of the face of the Earth after its undeperforming opening weekend. This film is a good case of something that would have probably done better with a more mainstream release, even if by $25m.

6. ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER - $84m Worldwide / $69m Budget

Let's rewrite history, they said. It'll make $100m, they said.
-------------------------
This is an example of a film that had gradually diminishing box office prospects, leading up to its sad domestic take of under $40 million. Based on the book by Seth Graeme-Smith, who also co-wrote this and Dark Shadows, the film is just that: The US president slaying vampires. The concept proved to be too outlandish for most moviegoers, inciting laughter at most trailers of the movie. Despite the lack of an R-rated horror film for a while, moviegoers agreed that the film seems to take itself too seriously. Maybe it could have been more successful if it were more of a comedy? Ironically, though, it ended up making more overseas, probably due to the appeal of Timur Bekmambetov's (Wanted) work globally.

Check back tomorrow for the even bigger duds!

Weekend Predictions: No One Will 'Rush' To New Openers

1. The Expendables 2 - $13.9m (-51.4%) - $4,143 PTA
2. The Bourne Legacy - $9.4m (-44.9%) - $2,574 PTA
3. ParaNorman - $8.8m (-37.5%) - $2,547 PTA
4. The Campaign - $7.8m (-40.6%) - $2,362 PTA
5. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $7.2m (-33.5%) - $2,771 PTA
6. The Dark Knight Rises - $7.1m (-35.5%) - $2,724 PTA
7. Premium Rush - $7m (NEW) - $3,104 PTA
8. Hope Springs- $6.3m (-30.8%) - $2,623 PTA
9. Sparkle - $4.9m (-57.9%) - $2,184 PTA
10. 2016: Obama's America - $4.6m (+369.5%) - $4,220 PTA
11. Hit & Run - $3.5m (NEW) - $1,220 PTA
12. The Apparition - $3.1m (NEW) - $3,827 PTA

Get ready for one of the slowest weekends of the year. The Expendables 2 should have an easy time repeating, dropping closely to its predecessor, simply because all of the openers will make a very limited splash.

Premium Rush has good reviews and Joseph Gordon Levitt, (easily one of the biggest rising stars of the moment, but still not enough to open a movie as the main billing) but that's about it. Online buzz is limited, as are ticket sales. The weak theater count is also not promising. Then again, the concept - intense bike deliveries across New York City - isn't really going to appeal to mainstream audiences. I'm sure there's still people who want to see it, but not enough to propel it higher than single digits, unfortunately.

Hit & Run looks even worse off. Supposedly bumped up to Wednesday in an effort to build up WOM for the weekend, it was dead on arrival with a pathetic $625k take from over 2,600 theaters. Buzz and marketing for this has been substantially limited, and nobody in the ensemble is a big draw. Hell, the supposed WOM that's supposed to be brewing is kind of absent. Expect a pitiful PTA this weekend and a sub $4m opening. It won't even crack the top 10.

The other two openers, 2016: Obama's America and The Apparition, will likely make kind of a splash, despite low theater counts. (The Apparition has less than 1,000, for pete's sake.) The conservative documentary on Obama will probably do well in the nation's republican states, such as those in the south. Meanwhile, The Apparition actually has more buzz than any other opener this week. Expect a decent per theater average, but still not one large enough to overtake its pitiful theater count.

Spaghetti's Top 10 Picks For The Fall: Part 2

Let's finish what we started!

5. Seven Psychopaths (dir. Martin McDonagh) - October 12th



 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOsd5d8IVoA

Martin McDonagh, director of the brilliant In Bruges , looks to strike again with this twisted comedy about a crazy dilemma involving a stolen Shih Tzu. Just by watching the trailer, you can tell that this is going to be a crazy good time. Plus - With a cast like that, how could you possibly go wrong? McDonagh's films were never a big box office hit, but if this is as good as we're hoping, you can be sure that it will have fans for a long time.

4. Looper (dir. Rian Johnson) - September 28th



 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uIWGOKW5OM

As a sucker for cerebral sci-fis with unique premises, as well as Joseph Gordon Levitt, this film looks to be pretty awesome. The premise involves an illegal use of time travel where future criminals send their targets to the present, where loopers (like Levitt's character) kill them. However, things get interesting when Levitt has to kill his future self. People who enjoy thinking at the movies will probably get a kick out of this film, so I'm definitely looking forward to this.

3. Argo (dir. Ben Affleck) - October 12th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w918Eh3fij0

After the Town and Gone Baby Gone, Ben Affleck has proven himself as a director, and his newest film has an awesome premise: Using a fake movie to extract hostages in Iran during the Cold War of the seventies. Oh, and it's based on a true story. With a great cast (Afflect, Bryan Cranston, Alan Arkin, & John Goodman) and an inticing plotline, this film has the potential to be another big success, just like The Town was in 2010.

2. Frankenweenie (dir. Tim Burton) - October 5th



As someone who can relate to losing a pet, this film already has me at its emotional core, not to mention a brilliant style of stop motion animation that only Tim Burton could deliver. It may not be a big box office smash, but expect a lot of Sparky shirts coming to your local Hot Topic.

1. The Master (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson) - September 14th



Paul Thomas Anderson. Need I say more?

Weekend Predictions: August 17-19

 

1. The Expendables 2 - $40m - $12,055 PTA
2. Sparkle - $15m - $6,844 PTA
3. The Borune Legacy - $14.4m (-62.2%) - $3,837 PTA
4. ParaNorman - $13.5m - $3,937 PTA
5. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $12.3m - $4,734 PTA
6. The Campaign - $11.8m (-55.6%) - $3,625 PTA
7. The Dark Knight Rises - $10.8m (-43.1%) - $3,421 PTA
8. Hope Springs - $9.2m (-37.2%) - $3,897 PTA
9. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $4.2m (-47.5%) - $1,535 PTA
10. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $3.6m (-43.6%) - $1,583 PTA






With a slew of new openers, it should be a pretty interesting weekend at the box office, including the hyped up sequel to 2010's hit film The Expendables, Whitney Houston's final film, a stop motion animation from the makers of Coraline, and a feel good family film to round out the summer.

The Expendables 2, the film that should have no struggle to win the weekend, as it has plenty of promising signs, with an even more bad ass cast, (Chuck Norris and Jean Claude Van Damme included) better reviews than the first, and huge buzz all over the place. However, there's also the possibility of action movie fatigue, after opening right after Total Recall and The Bourne Legacy. Still, everything else is pointing to this out grossing the first film, so it's pretty much going to be bigger, badder, and better in every way. This trend starts with its opening weekend.

Sparkle, the final film of Whitney Houston after she died earlier this year, is a remake of the film of the same name, this time casting American Idol winner Jordin Sparks as the titular character. The surprise leader of Fandango ticket sales this week, this film should also have definite appeal to older and African American audiences. Most people are thinking that Bourne will take the #2 spot this weekend, but I have a feeling that this will beg to differ.

ParaNorman, a horror film for kids, comes from the intricate world of stop motion animation. As the widest release Focus Features has ever pulled out by far, as well as a marketing campaign that started a year ago with a trailer in front of Puss In Boots, Focus Features has big confidence in this film. Buzz is also pretty lively, which is hard for a kids' film to pull off. Unfortunately, online ticket sales are kind of low, another rarity for a kids film, but it should still pull off a healthy opening weekend. As someone who wants to see it, I'm hoping that it goes higher than what I predicted.

Finally, The Odd Life Of Timothy Green had a solid start on Tuesday, especially with an A- Cinemascore coming off a 2.3m weekday. It probably won't recieve the same Friday boost as Hope Springs, though, due to the greater awareness of its Wednesday opening, but it should still carry on to a solid weekend.

Holdover wise, The Bourne Legacy will lose some audiences to the iffy WOM it had and The Expendables, as would Batman to a lesser extent, and The Campaign will probably drop closely to Dinner For Schmucks. It's not having the WOM needed to secure a better hold.

85.35% accuracy - Better than last week, but it could be more awesome. :|

Spaghetti's Top 10 Picks For The Fall: Part 1

With so many new movies coming out this fall, it's important to be a little discerning. In order, here are the top 10 films to see this fall!

10. Taken 2 (dir. Oliver Megaton) - October 5th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpaT8NzkLgE

Some people never learn from their mistakes. After Liam Neeson kicked their asses, these idiots want revenge and kidnap his wife. I guess that Liam Neeson has to do it all over again, now. Also, the daughter  (Maggie Grace) who was kidnapped in the first movie is also on the run, so we may get to see her body count, too. It'll struggle to get past the insane $145m that the first film made in January of 2009, but we can probably be sure that this movie is going to be totally awesome.

9. The Perks Of Being A Wallflower (dir. Stephen Chbosky) - September 21st (limited)



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5rh7O4IDc0

Based on a popular book, this teen comedy shows the life of an introverted teen (Logan Lerman) finally managing to make some friends. (Emma Watson and  Ezra Miller - in a much less creepy role than We Need To Talk About Kevin) I've always been a sucker for smaller-scale and teen comedies, so this could be a pretty great film if done right - that, and the cast looks pretty good. It also has some breakout potential, based on the fans of the novel wanting to see it.

8. Trouble With The Curve (dir. Robert Lorenz) - September 21st



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTHSqutzOcQ

As awesome as he is, Clint Eastwood has been a little off these past few years in the directors chair, but maybe Robert Lorenz, who worked with him for a while, can pull this off. After an aging baseball scout's eyes go bad, he brings his daughter (Amy Adams) on a scouting trip. The movie also stars Justin Timberlake & John Goodman, so it's a pretty solid cast. As something of a slight baseball fan, the story also looks pretty appealing. It has potential to be a good afternoon at the movies, if everything goes right, even if it probably won't pull a Moneyball on us.

7. Killing Them Softly (dir. Andrew Dominik) - October 19th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDyaNnrgdp4

Everything about this movie, from the trailer to the poster, looks slick and stylish. From the director of the well recieved Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford comes a new crime thriller involving the investigation of a heist crossed with the mob. I haven't seen it, but everything about this movie looks pretty great, and word from Cannes has definitely been positive. I'll have this on my radar for sure when it comes out. Plus, the cast is pretty great - Brad Pitt, James Gandolfini, Richard Jenkins, and Ray Liotta.

6. Cloud Atlas (dir. Larry & Lana Wachowski and Tom Twyker) - October 26th

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWnAqFyaQ5s

An incredibly ambitious film from the Wachowskis, (The Matrix, Speed Racer) and Tom Twyker (Run Lola Run) Cloud Atlas looks to be a saga of humanity, interweaving several stories from the past, present, and future, each action with several consequences to be felt in the future. With a huge ensemble playing multiple roles - Tom Hanks, Halle Berry, Hugo Weaving, Jim Broadbent, Hugh Grant, Keith David, and more - the scale is just huge for the film (which is 164 minutes long!) This film has huge potential to be either a fantastic examination of human kind, or a complete disastrous mess. Here's to hoping that it will be the former.

Check back tomorrow for the top five!

August 8-10 Prediction: Will Batman Lose His Crown?

1. The Bourne Legacy - $33m - ~$9,167 PTA
2. The Campaign - $26m - ~$8,000 PTA
3. The Dark Knight Rises - $20.6m (-42.4%)
4. Hope Springs - $16m ($22m 5-day) - $6,777 PTA
5. Total Recall - $11.9m (-53.5%)
6. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $6.5m (-55.6%)
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift  - $5.6m (-35%)
8. The Watch - $3.3m (-49.4%)
9. Ted - $3.3m (-41.5%)
10. Step Up: Revolution - $2.8m(-52.8%)
-Nitro Circus 3D: The Movie - $0.5m ($0.7m 5-day) - ~$625 PTA




It's likely that The Dark Knight Rises will no longer keep its crown. However, it's also likely that none of the openers will truly break out, personally. None of them have entered the Fandango Top 5, though this is likely more alarming for Bourne, which is less likely to has as many walkups as the other openers.

The Bourne Legacy, the fourth film in the Bourne franchise, and the first not to star Matt Damon, drops on Friday, but it may not even pass The Bourne Identity's adjusted $37m opening weekend. There is certainly online buzz  and definite interest, but not enough for it to must big business. In fact, figures aren't even much higher than Total Recall. However, I will give it the benefit of the doubt by having goodwill from the trilogy. However, what's troubling is the fact that reviews are being embargoed until tomorrow, a bad sign for any movie quality wise. However, that's more likely to affect it in the long run, if at all. The Dark Knight Rises and Total Recall may drop a little more than otherwise expected as a result of a new and highly anticipated action film entering the market.

The Campaign's not likely to get past Ferrel's past comedies, unfortunately, but it should still merit a decent opening weekend. Online buzz is relatively weak, especially on twitter, but I have a feeling that this may attract more older audiences by the political pull coming from the nearby election with Romney Vs. Obama. Reviews are pretty solid at this point, so that may help word of mouth to keep it alive throughout the rest of the summer. Overall, I don't see this opening higher than Step Brother's 30m take, Ferrel's last R-rated comedy for the summer, but it won't pull a Semi-Pro either.

Rounding out the openers, we have the two that opened today. Hope Springs & Nitro Circus 3D. Hope Springs screams late summer success, with its likeable cast led by Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones, & Steve Carrell, as well as surprisingly solid reviews. It won't make a big splash right away, but with a little push, it could approach Julie & Julia's impressive 90m+ total. As for Nitro Circus, well, nobody seems to know that it exists. As a result, expect terrible numbers.

EDIT: Accuracy was 79.22%. I guess people knew that Nitro Circus existed.

August 3-5 Predictions: Heffley Vs. Hauser

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $33.6m (-45.9%)
2. Total Recall - $23m (~$6,765 PTA)
3. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $19.5m (~$6,290 PTA)
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $7.4m (-44.5%)
5. The Watch - $6.4m (-49.8%)
6. Step Up: Revolution - $5.6m (-52.3%)
7. Ted - 4.9m (-33.4%)
8. The Amazing Spider-Man - 4.3m (-35.8%)
9. Brave - 2.5m (-41.9%)
10. Magic Mike - 1.5m (-42.7%)





After a slow weekend outside of The Dark Knight Rises, two new openers could get into the 20s range for the weekend. These two films are the Total Recall remake with Colin Farrell and the next installment of the Wimpy Kid series. Still, neither one will be able to overtake the bat.

First up, we have the remake of Total Recall, based off the 1990 hit with Arnold Schwarzenegger. The film stars Farrell, as well as Jessica Biel, Kate Beckinsdale, and Bryan Cranston. The film was bumped down to a PG-13 rating, rather than the original's R rating, but scaled up to a big budget of as much as 200m. It may save face internationally, but there's not much hope for it to break out here. Internet buzz is not as high as it should be, and it's only at #5 on The Fandango Top 5 as of Wednesday. At least that should prevent a complete failure, but it's going to need more steam to be "successful." Expect a number from the mid to low 20s. This will probably end up like John Carter & Battleship, where the film is a domestic flop, but it saves some face overseas. Also, could Spider-Man benefit from fudging/double features? Possibly.

Next up is Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, the third installment of the Wimpy Kid saga, and the first to be released during the summer. (It's actually based on the 4th book. They just skipped over The Last Straw, the third book in the series.) The first two installments have consistently performed in the low 20s, but failed to get past a 3x multiplier. Expect the same for this installment, but perhaps a smaller opening, potentially in the high teens. However, family films like Wimpy Kid typically have better weekdays over the summer, so that should help legs a little bit. Also, the new family film may affect Ice Age 4 and Brave a little bit, so don't expect the same drops it had last weekend.

Of course, we have The Dark Knight Rises, likely to win its third consecutive weekend a la Inception and The Dark Knight. Weekdays are already getting close to passing the -50% threshold, and should make a sub 50% drop very likely, let alone doable. I'm guessing that it drops to 7m today and slightly decreases tommorow. If it increases at least 45% on Friday, it could get to as high as 35m for the weekend.

Coming Soon: Spaghetti's Fall Movie Preview!

EDIT: Accuracy was 89.13%. Damn you, Wimpy Kid.