Weekend Predictions: August 17-19

 

1. The Expendables 2 - $40m - $12,055 PTA
2. Sparkle - $15m - $6,844 PTA
3. The Borune Legacy - $14.4m (-62.2%) - $3,837 PTA
4. ParaNorman - $13.5m - $3,937 PTA
5. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $12.3m - $4,734 PTA
6. The Campaign - $11.8m (-55.6%) - $3,625 PTA
7. The Dark Knight Rises - $10.8m (-43.1%) - $3,421 PTA
8. Hope Springs - $9.2m (-37.2%) - $3,897 PTA
9. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $4.2m (-47.5%) - $1,535 PTA
10. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $3.6m (-43.6%) - $1,583 PTA






With a slew of new openers, it should be a pretty interesting weekend at the box office, including the hyped up sequel to 2010's hit film The Expendables, Whitney Houston's final film, a stop motion animation from the makers of Coraline, and a feel good family film to round out the summer.

The Expendables 2, the film that should have no struggle to win the weekend, as it has plenty of promising signs, with an even more bad ass cast, (Chuck Norris and Jean Claude Van Damme included) better reviews than the first, and huge buzz all over the place. However, there's also the possibility of action movie fatigue, after opening right after Total Recall and The Bourne Legacy. Still, everything else is pointing to this out grossing the first film, so it's pretty much going to be bigger, badder, and better in every way. This trend starts with its opening weekend.

Sparkle, the final film of Whitney Houston after she died earlier this year, is a remake of the film of the same name, this time casting American Idol winner Jordin Sparks as the titular character. The surprise leader of Fandango ticket sales this week, this film should also have definite appeal to older and African American audiences. Most people are thinking that Bourne will take the #2 spot this weekend, but I have a feeling that this will beg to differ.

ParaNorman, a horror film for kids, comes from the intricate world of stop motion animation. As the widest release Focus Features has ever pulled out by far, as well as a marketing campaign that started a year ago with a trailer in front of Puss In Boots, Focus Features has big confidence in this film. Buzz is also pretty lively, which is hard for a kids' film to pull off. Unfortunately, online ticket sales are kind of low, another rarity for a kids film, but it should still pull off a healthy opening weekend. As someone who wants to see it, I'm hoping that it goes higher than what I predicted.

Finally, The Odd Life Of Timothy Green had a solid start on Tuesday, especially with an A- Cinemascore coming off a 2.3m weekday. It probably won't recieve the same Friday boost as Hope Springs, though, due to the greater awareness of its Wednesday opening, but it should still carry on to a solid weekend.

Holdover wise, The Bourne Legacy will lose some audiences to the iffy WOM it had and The Expendables, as would Batman to a lesser extent, and The Campaign will probably drop closely to Dinner For Schmucks. It's not having the WOM needed to secure a better hold.

85.35% accuracy - Better than last week, but it could be more awesome. :|