Will Pitt's Latest Open "Softly?" Probably.

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part II - $17.6m (-59.7%)
2. Skyfall - $16.5m (-53.5%)
3. Lincoln - $15.2m (-40.8%)
4. Life Of Pi - $12.4m (-44.8%)
5. Rise Of The Guardians - $12m (-49.5%)
6. Wreck-It Ralph - $7m (-57.8%)
7. Killing Them Softly - $6.7m (NEW) - $2,764 PTA
8. Red Dawn - $5.9m (-58.7%)
9. Flight - $4.6m (-45.6%)
10.Silver Linings Playbook - $2.8m (-36.1%)
-The Collector - $1.5m (NEW) - $1,069 PTA

Yeah...this is going to be a slow weekend.

Breaking Dawn is pretty much behaving as any Twilight film would be at this point. It's following Breaking Dawn Part 1 pretty closely, so expect a similar hold of around 60% over the post Thanksgiving weekend. However, Skyfall and Lincoln are still riding waves of powerful reception, and both may be able to get past the tween event by next weekend. Life Of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook should also have good holds, thanks to strong WOM and oscar buzz. Finally, expect Rise Of The Guardians to hold better than most family films on this weekend, due to its strength as a holiday film, and their relative immunity to this weekend's curse.

Killing Them Softly, despite strong viral buzz with a series of fake posters, (It's quite ironic how the official poster that they went with is by far the worst and least creative.) strong reception from its initial screening at Cannes 2012, has marketing that has been nonexistent. If it weren't for the surprisingly high flixster rating and Brad Pitt's name (Andrew Dominik also has a small, but devoted following from 2007's The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), I'd have it at an even lower gross than I already do. Still, we can expect this to at least make some money, but if this is really a disaster, it'll be pretty evident as to why.

The Collector is probably going to also end up dead on arrival. Reviews aren't quite stellar, and the marketing has been totally muted. On top of that, Horror movies rarely find any success when released after Halloween, so this film looks to be doomed from the start.

I'm Back! Thanksgiving Weekend Predictions

 

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part II - $42.3m (-70%)
2. Skyfall - $30.9m (-24.8%)
3. Rise Of The Guardians - $27.5m (NEW) - $7,528 PTA
4. Lincoln - $19.3m (-8.3%)
5. Wreck-It Ralph - $15.1m (-18.7%)
6. Life Of Pi - $14.7m  (NEW) - $5,482 PTA
7. Red Dawn - $11.3m (NEW) - $4,147 PTA
8. Flight - $7.2m (-18.2%)
9. The Silver Linings Playbook - $3.5m (+690%)
10. Argo - $2.9m (-28.3%)

These are for the three-day weekend, by the way.

So....it's finally Thanksgiving weekend. We've got an interesting line up of films this weekend: A new film by DreamWorks Animation, an action remake of the first PG-13 movie ever made, and an adaptation of a critically acclaimed novel. Of course, we also have Twilight's second weekend, so there's that. Twilight was actually the easiest film to predict so far. Despite having the draw of being the final Twilight film, (cue sighs of relief from men everywhere) it's behaving pretty much like any other Twilight film would. Thus, expect a hefty drop around 70%, just like Breaking Dawn II and New Mon.

Rise Of The Guardians has been frequently described as a kiddie Avengers. We've got Soviet Santa, an Austrailian Easter Bunny, a tooth fairy that apparently resembles a human/hummingbird hybrid, a mute sandman, and an angsty Jack Frost. This film has been recieving iffy prospects for a while now. The marketing is very weak, and the look of the film, particularly in the characters, seems to be turning off people as well. However, Dreamwork's name will prevent this from being a total disaster. They've never had a CGI film open under 30m since Antz, and that came out nearly 15 years ago! However, it looks like Guardians will be the first. From this day on, no animated film will be made with the word "Guardians" in the title.

Life Of Pi, the story of a religious boy who becomes stranded at sea with a vicious predator, has been getting a lot of Oscar buzz. The big budget film directed by Ang Lee, (Brokeback Mountain, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon) is a big contender not just for Picture, but also for several tech nods, based on the amazing visuals captured in the film's trailer. However, the concept would still be a bit of a hard sell to general audiences. Much like Hugo last year, it'll need strong WOM (which it'll probably get) to stay afloat over the rest of the season. Sorry for the pun.

The final opener this weekend is Red Dawn, a film that's been in release hell for a while. It was originally going to come out two years ago! However, the fact that its main stars are now known as Thor and Peeta Mallark, it could attract more teens and young adults to the theater. Buzz is also high in this demographic, albeit not elsewhere. Expect a modest run for this film.

I may be a little bullish on the holds for Lincoln and Skyfall, but these films are having incredible word of mouth, and they could end up having some pretty great holds this weekend. Wreck-It Ralph will be challenged by Guardians, but there should still be a big family draw for that. Also, Silver Linings Playbook may not expand quite like The Descendants did last year, but it should still do pretty well.

October 19-21 Predictions: Paranormal & Patterson

1. Paranormal Activity 4 - $42.5m (NEW) - $12,456 PTA
2. Alex Cross - $15.2m (NEW) - $5,986 PTA
3. Argo - $13.7m (-29.6%) - $4,219 PTA
4. Taken 2 - $13.1m (-40.1%) - $3,755 PTA
5. Hotel Transylvania - $12.2m (-29.2%) - $4,048 PTA
6. Here Comes The Boom - $7.4m (-37.4%) - $2,455 PTA
7. Sinister - $6.7m (-62.8%) - $2,636 PTA
8. Pitch Perfect - $6.4m (-30.9%) - $2,406 PTA
9. Frankenweenie - $4.9m (-30.5%) - $2,075 PTA
10. Looper - $3.9m (-37.1%) - $1,755 PTA

_________________________________________________________________

Well, it's that time of year again.

Paranormal Activity 4 is finally arriving into theaters, but it would be hard pressed to reach its predecessor's $52m opening weekend. If Saw was any indication, Paranormal Activity would have peaked with its third installment. (I'm talking about opening weekends. Saw 2 was the highest grosser.) In fact, most franchises suffer drops in fourth installments. Paranormal Activity 4 will still definitely be a big film, and social media is clearly pumped for this, but I'm not convinced that this film will break the fourth-film-curse. To make matters worse, it's getting pretty bleh early reactions. (PA1 and PA3 were actually fresh on the tomatometer, and PA2 barely missed it. PA4 is currently at 35%.) Critics don't always speak for general audiences, but this is probably a bad sign for WOM and staying power. It's almost locked to have under a 2x multiplier.

Alex Cross is the second wide release this week. Tyler Perry plays the titular James Patterson character who must track down Matthew Fox. (Between Cross, Jack Reacher, and Jack Ryan, Hollywood is probably going through a famous literary agent adaption phase.) While fans of the book and/or Tyler Perry and people seeking a good action movie will probably go see it, it will be hard pressed to break out. Early word of mouth, as well as reactions to the trailer, were not so pretty across the net. Also, Tyler Perry's general box office appeal is past its peak. (Madea's Witness Protection is the only exception, but that had summer weekdays to boost its gross.) Also, it will struggle to compete with Paranormal. Don't expect big numbers from this film. (And it's currently bombing on Rotten Tomatoes, as well.)

You may have also noticed some lower than normal drops for many PG-13 films. Let's fact it, many teenagers buy tickets to PG-13 movies to get into R-rated movies. A major one is coming this weekend. Expect the major beneficiaries to be Taken 2 and Pitch Perfect, and maybe Alex Cross to a lesser extent. In addition, Argo is having fantastic word of mouth, (Including an A+ CinemaScore!) while Sinister's buzz is weaker, and it's facing direct competition this weekend...

Sorry For The Hiatus! Weekend Predictions

 

1. Hotel Transylvania - $22.5m
2. Looper - $20.8m
3. End Of Watch - $7.6m
4. Trouble With The Curve - $7.2m
5. Won't Back Down - $6.5m
6. House At The End Of The Street - $5.7m
7. Finding Nemo 3D - $4.3m
8. Resident Evil: Retribution - $3.1m
9. Dredd - $2.9m
10. The Master - $2.8m

 Hotel Transylvania and Looper are currently in a toss up as to what will win the weekend. Funny enough, both are being distributed by Sony Pictures here. (Hotel is Columbia, while Looper is TriStar/FilmDistrict, by the way.)

Hotel Transylvania comes sandwiched between two pieces of competition: Finding Nemo 3D and Frankenweenie. While families may be desiring a new animated film to take the kids to, there's not very much buzz elsewhere for the animated monster mash. This is also a bit surprising, since director Gennedy Tartakovsky has plenty of goodwill from the awesome TV shows, Dexter's Laboratory & Samurai Jack. Expect this to be number one, albeit barely so.

Looper, as an R-rated sci-fi film during September, may seem very niche. However, it has so much going for it otherwise. The reviews are raves, all the way from its opening night at TIFF, and it'll be riding on the wave of Joseph Gordon Levitt's growing popularity. Also, if TriStar could bring District 9 to be a hit, I wouldn't be surprised if they got some decent numbers out of this one, too.

Won't Back Down...I'm not sure very many people want to see this. The themes of education reform may attract the kind of audience that goes to the movies on Tuesday, but the buzz is pretty much dead, and fall dramas that aren't oscar bait can often get lost in the shuffle. I'm expecting a similar fate for this film.

This Weekend Is Going To Be Lame.

1. The Possession - $7.3m (-58.8%) - $2,576 PTA
2. The Words - $6m - $2,142 PTA
3. Lawless - $5.4m (-46%) - $1,721 PTA
4. The Expendables 2 - $4.6m (-49.1%) - $1,411 PTA
5. The Bourne Legacy - $3.9m (-46.1%) - $1,412 PTA
6. ParaNorman - $3.7m (-43.7%) - $1,296 PTA
7. 2016: Obama's America - $3.5m (-37.6%) - ~$2,003 PTA
8. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $3.3m (-44.2%) - $1,215 PTA
9. The Dark Knight Rises - $3.2m (-47.7%) - $1,610 PTA
10. The Cold Light Of Day - $3m - $1,985 PTA
-Raiders Of The Lost Ark: IMAX - $2.8m - $10,487 PTA

Doesn't even deserve a summary. At least Indy's foray into IMAX should have a decent  PTA.

Labor Day 4-Day Weekend Predictions

This weekend, I'm also playing for a contest on BoxOffice.com to win a blu-ray of the summer's biggest loser: BATTLESHIP. (I'm doing it just for bragging rights, but I could get a few bucks by selling it on eBay.)

1. The Possession - $15m - ~$5,556 PTA
2. Lawless - $12.5m - $4,873 PTA
3. The Expendables 2 - $11.8m (-12.8%) - ~$3,487 PTA
4. 2016: Obama's America - $9.5m (+46%) - ~$5,428 PTA
5. ParaNorman - $8.9m (+3%) - $2,885 PTA
6. The Bourne Legacy - $8.7m (-6.8%) - $2,780 PTA
7. The Dark Knight Rises - $7.9m (+9.4%) - $3,613 PTA
8. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $7.4m (+3.9%) - $2,808 PTA
9. The Campaign - $7m (-6.3%) - $2,142 PTA
10. Hope Springs - $5.8m (+1.3%) - $2,376 PTA
-The Oogieloves In The Big Baloon Adventure - $1.2m - $556 PTA

Not much to talk about this week, other than a few key points:

-If Lawless follows suit with past labor day thrillers that opened on Wednesday (i.e. The American, The Debt, Traitor, etc.) it should easily get to a 4-day weekend over 10x from its 1.14m Wednesday start.

-The Possession has a decent amount of buzz this week, and that should be enough to propel it to the top spot, even if it won't catch on nearly as much as past found footage films, such as The Devil Inside, The Last Exorcism, and of course, Paranormal Activity.

-The Oogieloves had a terrible $100k Wednesday, but it could at least get over $1m for the 4-day weekend. Still, considering how $55m was spent on this stinker, mainly on marketing, too, don't expect Oogieloves 2 anytime soon.

Summer's Biggest Winners: Part 2

The last of the four part saga in which I recount the summer's biggest hits & misses. Let's finish this bad boy.

5. MAGIC MIKE - ~$150m Worldwide / $7m Budget

 Forget global warming. This caused the heat wave this summer.
 ---------------------------------------
Earlier this year, people thought this would hardly make a dent at the box office, seeing it as likely getting lost in the shuffle. However, female audiences are not to be underestimated. The idea of five muscular men (led by Channing Tatum, straight off of two box office hits, The Vow and 21 Jump Street) as male strippers in a movie that included graphic nudity in its MPAA rating must have got these audiences excited. The film, however, received a release on only one or two screens at most multiplexes. WB ended up underestimating this. On June 29th, the film yielded a $6.6k PTA, churning up a Friday of nearly $20m. Unfortunately, the weekend was rather front loaded, dropping a whopping 41% on Saturday to have an internal multiplier of just over 2x. The film had iffy weekend holds, but it held great on summer weekdays, similar to most films aimed at women over the summer. Not only was it a huge hit off of a $7m budget, it received surprisingly good reviews, thanks to Steven Soderbergh's surprisingly solid (heh, alliteration) direction. Another June 29th release was also popular, but we'll get to that later.

4. ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT - ~$825m Worldwide / $95m Budget

For some reason, he's an international celebrity.
--------------------------------
Blue Sky is one of the most profitable studios currently working in Bollywood, churning out  CGI movies for lower budgets after tax cuts for working in Connecticut. Their big franchise, Ice Age, continued this summer by introducing a new dynamic: prehistoric pirates. Sid, Diego, & Manny must face these new bad guys while the crazed Scrat still hunts for that coveted acorn. Granted, the film received average reviews, and it had the lowest gross for the franchise domestically. The fourth installment curse strikes again. However, they didn't just make this for American audiences. The series yields INSANE numbers overseas, thanks to the 3D advent and the exciting setting, but even that can't fully explain the ridiculously high numbers. Seriously, Ice Age 3 had the highest overseas take of every single animated film ever. 81% of the film's gross came from foreign countries. Match that with the several toys that it would probably sell, and Fox will struggle to count all the money that they're making off of this cash cow. Ice Age 5 will be just around the corner.

3. THE DARK KNIGHT RISES - ~$1b Worldwide / $250m Budget

When July 20th comes, Marvel, then you have my permission to die.
--------------------------------------
What set up do I need? It's the last installment of Christopher Nolan's epic Batman trilogy, placing him against the notorious Bane (Tom Hardy, who worked with Nolan in 2010's Inception.) Push come to shove, The Dark Knight Rises is mimicking what Toy Story 3 is going through, box office wise. The opening fell short of the massive expectations being thrown around, but most people are still going to be generally satisfied with the general result. Of course, one of the reasons for this film's struggle derives from one of the biggest tragedies of the year, one that no predictor could have possibly seen coming: the Aurora shootings. This event sent a shock wave to effect most remaining films in the summer - not just The Dark Knight Rises.
However, most weren't stopped from seeing what should have been the event of the summer, desperate to see how Nolan would end this saga. Overall, it gave a fantastic performance that could have been even better if unfair circumstances weren't brought into play.

2. TED - ~$400m Worldwide / $50m Budget

Moviegoers sure love some tasteful comedy over the summer.

-----------------------------------------
Seth MacFarlane  has a huge fanbase, after Family Guy, American Dad, and The Cleveland Show consistently score high rankings for Fox. Before he does a Family Guy movie, though, he brought the story of a crude, foul-mouthed, pot smoking teddy bear to the big screen. After warm reactions to the trailer in early April, (most likely attached to the disappointing American Reunion) people figured that this was going to be a hit. However, no one could have imagined how big it really was. Every summer has had a big comedy breakout since 2009: The Hangover, Grown Ups, Bridesmaids, and now Ted. The film brought in a whopping $54m opening weekend, proceeding to get nearly a 4x multiplier and cross $200m with ease. Better yet, the film performed better than most comedies do overseas, thanks to the international appeal of Family Guy. When all is said and done, this may very well be Universal's biggest film on its 100th anniversary, unless Les Miserables turns into a crazy breakout.

1. MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS - $1.5b Worldwide / $220m Budget

 It would have been awesome even if they showed only this still for 2.5 hours.
---------------------------
The highest grossing film of the summer both domestically and worldwide - and it wasn't even expected to be. After building up character development through five movies spread out across four years, (Iron Man got two movies, and Hawkeye only had a cameo in Thor, so it's not necessarily equal...) Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, The Hulk, Hawkeye, and Black Widow are finally united under Nick Fury, (Samuel L. Jackson) fighting to take on the forces of Loki, Thor's evil brother. If the idea of all these superheroes working together doesn't do it for you, maybe Joss Whedon, who delivered one of the summer's best scripts with this movie. (Honestly, I thought it was the funniest movie of the summer.) Indeed, the film made history right from the start. It had a jaw dropping opening weekend of over $200m, a record that will probably stick for a while, as well as a second weekend over $100m. Both records are the first for any film to do. The film was universally loved by Marvel fans, general audiences, and critics aline, yielding a whopping $1.5 billion dollar gross during the summer. The film even out grossed Titanic's original run, the only film to do so other than Avatar! Safe to say, The Avengers will stay with us for a while. Thor, Iron Man, and Cap will get their own sequels in the next two years, a new ABC series focusing on SHIELD could pilot next fall, and The Avengers will re-unite to take on Thanos in 2015. Finally, you can see The Avengers again this weekend, as it's returning to most theaters for Labor Day weekend.

That's all, folks!

Summer's Biggest Winners: Part 1

10. MEN IN BLACK 3 - ~$625m Worldwide / $225m Budget

Save that for when Total Recall opens, K.
-----------------------------------
It's pretty difficult to continue a series after a 10-year break, especially when your last film wasn't well received. MIB 3 still managed to do pretty well, despite what it had going against it. Sure, it was the lowest grossing installment of the franchise. And sure, Will Smith was past his peak. However, this film managed to hold solid footing amidst a crowded summer, including the franchise's highest overseas take, which was able to turn the film's high budget into a profit for Sony Pictures.  This is probably due in part to the appeal of the 3D format. Better yet, the film was a step up, quality wise, from the second film, which gets a lot of hate online. This third installment was generally liked, mainly thanks to Josh Brolin's spot on take as a younger version of Agent K. Sony Picture's happiness will continue with the next film on our list...

9. THE AMAZING SPIDER MAN - ~$715m Worldwide / $230m Budget
 
No comment.
--------------------------------
Rebooting a franchise in which the last installment was just five years ago is kind of an odd idea. I mean, MIB 3 had twice the wait, and they just continued as it was. Still, the new representation of Spider-Man, portrayed by The Social Network's Andrew Garfield and directed by Marc Webb ((500) Days of Summer), managed to be pretty successful. Much like MIB 3, which coincidentally was also distributed by Sony Pictures, the film became greatly profitable overseas, where 3D was more popular than it was in the states. The film was also generally well received by general audiences, despite poor reactions to the villanous Lizard's depiction, even scoring the rank of Certified Fresh on RottenTomatoes.com. Sony was so confident about the film, that they set the date for a 2014 sequel without even seeing how much this would make. Granted, it made less than than each film in Raimi's trilogy, but it still brought in a solid amount, and many will be looking forward to May of 2014.

8. MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE'S MOST WANTED - ~$590m Worldwide / $145m Budget

This picture was from a well reviewed movie that made nearly $600m Worldwide. Think about that.
-------------------------------------
First, let's agree not to mention "I Like To Move It." Alex, Marty, Gloria, & Melman are four of the most popular runaway animated animals of the moment. (I'm not sure if there are any others, though...) The films consistently delivered for children, albeit not as much for adults. Given the fact that Brave was coming up, and families were watching MIB 3 and The Avengers, many pundits saw a decline for the third installment. However, the film marked two highs for the series. Thanks to the lack of a major kids film since The Lorax, 3D premiums boosting ticket prices, and children laughing at the ad-naseum Circus Afro advertising, the film mustered up an impressive 60m opening. Better yet, the film held up, even against Brave, due to great word of mouth. Several agreed that it was actually a solid film, thanks to Noah Baumbach's co-written script and brilliant new characters. (Bryan Cranston, Jessica Chastain, and Martin Short as circus animals, and Frances McDormand as a twisted and relentless animal control officer.) The film pretty much surprised every one.

7. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL - $131m Worldwide / $10m Budget

This also works in depicting the average group that saw this in theaters.
--------------------------------------
Before it hit US shores, the motion picture event of the summer - for your grandparents - was already a bit hit in Europe, particularly the UK, home to most of the film's stars, such as Bill Nighy, Maggie Smith, & Judi Dench.  They all star as senior citizens traveling to India, particularly at the titular location run by Slumdog Millionaire's Dev Patel, and having life changing experiences.  With solid reviews and an appealing cast/concept, seniors were drawn to the movie, giving it a $27k PTA from 27 theaters. Fox Searchlight marked a quick expansion for the film, putting it in over 1,000 theaters on its fourth week. The film soon led to $45m Domestic, on top of the money it had already made in its international release. Thus, it narrowly received the rank of highest grossing indie release of the summer, but it's not quite the most impressive...

6. MOONRISE KINGDOM - $58m Worldwide / $16m Budget

Hipsters rejoice!
------------------------------------------------
Also my favorite movie of the summer, Moonrise Kingdom pulled off an impressive feat. Wes Anderson's style is pretty niche, and the idea of two children falling in love on a New England island in 1965 isn't exactly what people go to see in the summer. However, Anderson's fans were dedicated from the start. The film pulled off an incredible $130k PTA over it's 3-day weekend, the second highest for a live action film. (Red State still holds the record.) After a slow but steady expansion, the film exceeded $40m, lingering though the summer as the must see independent film. (Marigold Hotel sort of faded after June, despite its success.) Not only that, but it's also shaping up to be one of  the first Oscar contenders of the year, along with Beasts Of The Southern Wild & maybe The Dark Knight Rises. It's mimicking Midnight In Paris in many ways: Late may release, impressive OW PTA, expansion to around 1,000 theaters, and a total well above $40m. That also went on to get a Best Picture nod and a Best Screenplay win. Here's to hoping that Moonrise Kingdom can continue to shine when Oscar season comes around.

Summer's Biggest Losers: Part 2

No need to keep on waiting. Let's just get right to it.

5. DARK SHADOWS - $235m Worldwide / $150m Budget


Look at me! I'm Johnny Depp, being weird in a Burton movie! That'll bring in cash, right.....right?!
-------------------------------------
I suppose that it was kind of silly to expect too much of an adaption of a niche Gothic soap opera from the '60s, even if Burton and Depp were involved in it. That was probably the movie's only true saving grace, too. The film's marketing campaign started late (the trailer came out in March) due to Warner Bros' Confusion as to how to market the bloody thing. (No pun intended) Once the trailer came out, however, a slew of tv spots were everywhere, probably boosting the marketing budget marginally. The film ended up with mixed reactions from both critics and moviegoers, due to its inconsistent tone and its messy ending, causing it to fade from the charts. Worldwide, it saved some face, though, due to the appeal of Burton's name, but not enough to cancel out the massive budget.

4. TOTAL RECALL - ~$150m Worldwide / $125m Budget



Can you make me forget that I signed on to do this movie?
---------------------
Not even a girl with three breasts could save this bona-fide stinker. The remake of the hit 1990 film of the same name with Ah-nold Schwarzenegger didn't come close to its total when unadjusted let alone the opposite. Colin Farrel couldn't copy the same magic that he did there. The action film did little to stick out for itself in a frame where The Dark Knight Rises was still going strong, and The Bourne Legacy and The Expendables 2 were just around the corner. (These two films caused this to drop like a rock, especially with audiences not giving it remarkable word of mouth) It woudn't have been such a big problem if the budget weren't so high. (There were reports that the budget was $200m!) Though it's been confirmed to be a relatively reasonable $125m, Sony Pictures won't be seeing a large share of that money any time soon.

3. THE WATCH- ~$40m Worldwide / $68m Budget

Oh my god! We're losing to a freaking pot smoking teddy bear!
------------------------------------
This film once had potential. Ben Stiller was a generally bankable comedian. Jonah Hill was fresh off the good will from 21 Jump Street. Richard Ayoade has a small, but dedicate number of fans from "The IT Crowd" I'm sure that Vince Vaughn also has fans somewhere, too. The R-rated comedy faced trouble when people drew ties to it and the Trayvon Martin incident earlier this year, forcing Fox to change the title from "Neighborhood Watch." Now, they hardly had to worry about that, even though a few people were still turned off because of it. It ended up tanking due to simply not appealing to general audiences. The ads simply weren't that funny. The film became dead on arrival, likely causing serious losses for 20th Century Fox. Still, they're counting the foreign grosses of Ice Age 4, so they won't be worrying anytime soon.


2. THE FAILURES OF THE FIFTEENTH: ROCK OF AGES AND THAT'S MY BOY: ~$50m Worldwide / $70m-75m Budget

 I guess audiences stopped believing.
-----------------------------

Most people re-acted the same way to the actual movie, Andy.
--------------------------
Is it cheating to have an extra film on this list? Who cares? Besides, everything about these two films is nearly identical. They both are comedies, came out on June 15th, are led by stars probably past their prime, had high expectations, precedents set to justify these expectations, budgets around $70m, and final grosses of...well....not that much. Rock Of Ages was an adaption of the hit Broadway show, a jukebox musical of songs from the 80s, led by Tom Cruise being ultimate rock star Stacee Jaxx. Despite the successes of Hairspray & Mamma Mia, this film was an utter disaster. The ads did little to appeal outside of those who liked the music, and even then, the ads failed to spark a whole lot of interest. That's My Boy cast Sandler as a slacker who crashes his son's wedding. Oh, and his son was brought into the world as Sander had an affair with his Middle School teacher - while he was in Middle School. The main problem with this was its R-rating. Sandler had a lot of fans that were pretty young, and the reason movies like Grown Ups were successful, is that they were accessible to these younger audiences. The r-rating pushed away these younger moviegoers, leaving only a number of grown ups and teens that actually wanted to see this. Both movies fell off the map after a few weeks.

1. BATTLESHIP - $300m Worldwide / $209m Budget

 Cue the countdown for "Taylor Kitsch = Guaranteed Bomb" posts in 3, 2, 1...
----------------------------
At least it had an abnormal 79% share of tickets purchased overseas, where it was released early in April to strike before anything else was able to. This is pretty ironic, considering how the movie just screams: "America!" The 131 minutes of jingoism and Bay-style explosions failed to catch on. For one, people were laughing at the movie. The fact that it was a movie based off a board game simply caused people to ridicule it rather than want to see it. I'm not sure what Universal was thinking here. Secondly, there was this little film called The Avengers, and it pretty much create a black hole that sucked up every other film that came with it. Battleship was one of its major victims, as well as the previously mentioned Dark Shadows. The cast is actually pretty hilarious. Liam Neeson, the only really respectable person here. Rihanna, in her first major film role. Finally, there's Taylor Kitsch, straight off the hilarious bombing of John Carter. It's sad that even Savages won't make its budget back. Nothing will compare to this gargantuan bomb, though.

Winners coming tomorrow!

Summer 2012's Losers: Part 1

The summer is winding down now, so let's take a look at what the big hits, and misses, were for this summer.
Let's begin with the biggest losers. Note that these won't all be flops. Some will just have given disappointing runs or simply churned out flat-out terrible numbers.

10. PREMIUM RUSH - ~$20m Domestic / $35m Budget


If I get injured, the hospital charges will come out of this movie's entire gross.
---------------------------------
Not even Joseph Gordon Levitt, nor the presence of good reviews, could save this stinker. Joseph Gordon Levitt is barely breaking out as a star as it is, and headlining a movie with a steadily growing star can be dangerous, especially if no one else is a serious draw. The good reviews are actually a little surprising, considering how the film was pushed back from this past January. However, it was still likely that this wouldn't catch on, given that Sony kind of dumped it with a limited marketing campaign and a relatively low theater count. Learn this lesson, Hollywood: action movies with bicycle centered action are pretty tough sells.

9. HIT & RUN - ~$15m Domestic / $2m Budget

Oh no, it's the Open Road executives, and they're pissed. Run!!
------------------------
You'd think that with a half decent marketing campaign and a not completely terrible, (at the level of mixed reviews on RT) you wouldn't turn up a disaster, but Hit & Run managed to do just that. This doomed action comedy lacked any serious star power, came out on a slow weekend, and received limited marketing. (just like Premium Rush, which ironically came out on the same weekend.) Still, Open Road seemed to have faith in this, giving it a relatively large theater count on top of a move from the Friday to Wednesday to "build up word of mouth." They'll get their $2m budget back easily. (They already did, in fact.) Still, the marketing costs wouldn't have been justified, and the gross is completely terrible.

8. PEOPLE LIKE US - $12m Domestic / $16m Budget


Why did the new Star Trek movie get delayed for this, mommy?
------------------------------
It's hilariously tragic how this Chris Pine drama came out on the day that the Star Trek sequel was originally slated. This failed drama about a brother (Pine) and sister (Elizabeth Banks) who had never seen each other until now. The film was announced at the last minute, and it just kind of was there. No one really noticed that it existed. However, Touchstone & Dreamworks were so desperate that they focused on positive twitter reactions by general audiences, as well as the fact that it was from the same studio as last year's breakout hit, The Help. Studios need to realize that unless it's an animated film with an in house company (like The Lorax, Brave, etc.) that strategy isn't going to work.

7. SEEKING A FRIEND FOR THE END OF THE WORLD - $8m Worldwide / $10m Budget

Give us a break. We're in a financial disaster before this actual disaster.
------------------------------
This is probably just me, but the film seemed like it had a lot more potential box office wise than what was shown in the returns. Sure, the concept of the world ending is bleak, even if presented as a clever pseudo-independent comedy, but Steve Carell could have drawn in more people than what it did. Even with a small release of just over 1,600 theaters, it's not like Focus Features is stingy with theater counts. (ParaNorman was at nearly 3,500!) Instead, this became one of the lowest grossing wide releases of the summer, one they let fall of the face of the Earth after its undeperforming opening weekend. This film is a good case of something that would have probably done better with a more mainstream release, even if by $25m.

6. ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER - $84m Worldwide / $69m Budget

Let's rewrite history, they said. It'll make $100m, they said.
-------------------------
This is an example of a film that had gradually diminishing box office prospects, leading up to its sad domestic take of under $40 million. Based on the book by Seth Graeme-Smith, who also co-wrote this and Dark Shadows, the film is just that: The US president slaying vampires. The concept proved to be too outlandish for most moviegoers, inciting laughter at most trailers of the movie. Despite the lack of an R-rated horror film for a while, moviegoers agreed that the film seems to take itself too seriously. Maybe it could have been more successful if it were more of a comedy? Ironically, though, it ended up making more overseas, probably due to the appeal of Timur Bekmambetov's (Wanted) work globally.

Check back tomorrow for the even bigger duds!

Weekend Predictions: No One Will 'Rush' To New Openers

1. The Expendables 2 - $13.9m (-51.4%) - $4,143 PTA
2. The Bourne Legacy - $9.4m (-44.9%) - $2,574 PTA
3. ParaNorman - $8.8m (-37.5%) - $2,547 PTA
4. The Campaign - $7.8m (-40.6%) - $2,362 PTA
5. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $7.2m (-33.5%) - $2,771 PTA
6. The Dark Knight Rises - $7.1m (-35.5%) - $2,724 PTA
7. Premium Rush - $7m (NEW) - $3,104 PTA
8. Hope Springs- $6.3m (-30.8%) - $2,623 PTA
9. Sparkle - $4.9m (-57.9%) - $2,184 PTA
10. 2016: Obama's America - $4.6m (+369.5%) - $4,220 PTA
11. Hit & Run - $3.5m (NEW) - $1,220 PTA
12. The Apparition - $3.1m (NEW) - $3,827 PTA

Get ready for one of the slowest weekends of the year. The Expendables 2 should have an easy time repeating, dropping closely to its predecessor, simply because all of the openers will make a very limited splash.

Premium Rush has good reviews and Joseph Gordon Levitt, (easily one of the biggest rising stars of the moment, but still not enough to open a movie as the main billing) but that's about it. Online buzz is limited, as are ticket sales. The weak theater count is also not promising. Then again, the concept - intense bike deliveries across New York City - isn't really going to appeal to mainstream audiences. I'm sure there's still people who want to see it, but not enough to propel it higher than single digits, unfortunately.

Hit & Run looks even worse off. Supposedly bumped up to Wednesday in an effort to build up WOM for the weekend, it was dead on arrival with a pathetic $625k take from over 2,600 theaters. Buzz and marketing for this has been substantially limited, and nobody in the ensemble is a big draw. Hell, the supposed WOM that's supposed to be brewing is kind of absent. Expect a pitiful PTA this weekend and a sub $4m opening. It won't even crack the top 10.

The other two openers, 2016: Obama's America and The Apparition, will likely make kind of a splash, despite low theater counts. (The Apparition has less than 1,000, for pete's sake.) The conservative documentary on Obama will probably do well in the nation's republican states, such as those in the south. Meanwhile, The Apparition actually has more buzz than any other opener this week. Expect a decent per theater average, but still not one large enough to overtake its pitiful theater count.

Spaghetti's Top 10 Picks For The Fall: Part 2

Let's finish what we started!

5. Seven Psychopaths (dir. Martin McDonagh) - October 12th



 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOsd5d8IVoA

Martin McDonagh, director of the brilliant In Bruges , looks to strike again with this twisted comedy about a crazy dilemma involving a stolen Shih Tzu. Just by watching the trailer, you can tell that this is going to be a crazy good time. Plus - With a cast like that, how could you possibly go wrong? McDonagh's films were never a big box office hit, but if this is as good as we're hoping, you can be sure that it will have fans for a long time.

4. Looper (dir. Rian Johnson) - September 28th



 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uIWGOKW5OM

As a sucker for cerebral sci-fis with unique premises, as well as Joseph Gordon Levitt, this film looks to be pretty awesome. The premise involves an illegal use of time travel where future criminals send their targets to the present, where loopers (like Levitt's character) kill them. However, things get interesting when Levitt has to kill his future self. People who enjoy thinking at the movies will probably get a kick out of this film, so I'm definitely looking forward to this.

3. Argo (dir. Ben Affleck) - October 12th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w918Eh3fij0

After the Town and Gone Baby Gone, Ben Affleck has proven himself as a director, and his newest film has an awesome premise: Using a fake movie to extract hostages in Iran during the Cold War of the seventies. Oh, and it's based on a true story. With a great cast (Afflect, Bryan Cranston, Alan Arkin, & John Goodman) and an inticing plotline, this film has the potential to be another big success, just like The Town was in 2010.

2. Frankenweenie (dir. Tim Burton) - October 5th



As someone who can relate to losing a pet, this film already has me at its emotional core, not to mention a brilliant style of stop motion animation that only Tim Burton could deliver. It may not be a big box office smash, but expect a lot of Sparky shirts coming to your local Hot Topic.

1. The Master (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson) - September 14th



Paul Thomas Anderson. Need I say more?

Weekend Predictions: August 17-19

 

1. The Expendables 2 - $40m - $12,055 PTA
2. Sparkle - $15m - $6,844 PTA
3. The Borune Legacy - $14.4m (-62.2%) - $3,837 PTA
4. ParaNorman - $13.5m - $3,937 PTA
5. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $12.3m - $4,734 PTA
6. The Campaign - $11.8m (-55.6%) - $3,625 PTA
7. The Dark Knight Rises - $10.8m (-43.1%) - $3,421 PTA
8. Hope Springs - $9.2m (-37.2%) - $3,897 PTA
9. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $4.2m (-47.5%) - $1,535 PTA
10. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $3.6m (-43.6%) - $1,583 PTA






With a slew of new openers, it should be a pretty interesting weekend at the box office, including the hyped up sequel to 2010's hit film The Expendables, Whitney Houston's final film, a stop motion animation from the makers of Coraline, and a feel good family film to round out the summer.

The Expendables 2, the film that should have no struggle to win the weekend, as it has plenty of promising signs, with an even more bad ass cast, (Chuck Norris and Jean Claude Van Damme included) better reviews than the first, and huge buzz all over the place. However, there's also the possibility of action movie fatigue, after opening right after Total Recall and The Bourne Legacy. Still, everything else is pointing to this out grossing the first film, so it's pretty much going to be bigger, badder, and better in every way. This trend starts with its opening weekend.

Sparkle, the final film of Whitney Houston after she died earlier this year, is a remake of the film of the same name, this time casting American Idol winner Jordin Sparks as the titular character. The surprise leader of Fandango ticket sales this week, this film should also have definite appeal to older and African American audiences. Most people are thinking that Bourne will take the #2 spot this weekend, but I have a feeling that this will beg to differ.

ParaNorman, a horror film for kids, comes from the intricate world of stop motion animation. As the widest release Focus Features has ever pulled out by far, as well as a marketing campaign that started a year ago with a trailer in front of Puss In Boots, Focus Features has big confidence in this film. Buzz is also pretty lively, which is hard for a kids' film to pull off. Unfortunately, online ticket sales are kind of low, another rarity for a kids film, but it should still pull off a healthy opening weekend. As someone who wants to see it, I'm hoping that it goes higher than what I predicted.

Finally, The Odd Life Of Timothy Green had a solid start on Tuesday, especially with an A- Cinemascore coming off a 2.3m weekday. It probably won't recieve the same Friday boost as Hope Springs, though, due to the greater awareness of its Wednesday opening, but it should still carry on to a solid weekend.

Holdover wise, The Bourne Legacy will lose some audiences to the iffy WOM it had and The Expendables, as would Batman to a lesser extent, and The Campaign will probably drop closely to Dinner For Schmucks. It's not having the WOM needed to secure a better hold.

85.35% accuracy - Better than last week, but it could be more awesome. :|

Spaghetti's Top 10 Picks For The Fall: Part 1

With so many new movies coming out this fall, it's important to be a little discerning. In order, here are the top 10 films to see this fall!

10. Taken 2 (dir. Oliver Megaton) - October 5th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpaT8NzkLgE

Some people never learn from their mistakes. After Liam Neeson kicked their asses, these idiots want revenge and kidnap his wife. I guess that Liam Neeson has to do it all over again, now. Also, the daughter  (Maggie Grace) who was kidnapped in the first movie is also on the run, so we may get to see her body count, too. It'll struggle to get past the insane $145m that the first film made in January of 2009, but we can probably be sure that this movie is going to be totally awesome.

9. The Perks Of Being A Wallflower (dir. Stephen Chbosky) - September 21st (limited)



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5rh7O4IDc0

Based on a popular book, this teen comedy shows the life of an introverted teen (Logan Lerman) finally managing to make some friends. (Emma Watson and  Ezra Miller - in a much less creepy role than We Need To Talk About Kevin) I've always been a sucker for smaller-scale and teen comedies, so this could be a pretty great film if done right - that, and the cast looks pretty good. It also has some breakout potential, based on the fans of the novel wanting to see it.

8. Trouble With The Curve (dir. Robert Lorenz) - September 21st



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTHSqutzOcQ

As awesome as he is, Clint Eastwood has been a little off these past few years in the directors chair, but maybe Robert Lorenz, who worked with him for a while, can pull this off. After an aging baseball scout's eyes go bad, he brings his daughter (Amy Adams) on a scouting trip. The movie also stars Justin Timberlake & John Goodman, so it's a pretty solid cast. As something of a slight baseball fan, the story also looks pretty appealing. It has potential to be a good afternoon at the movies, if everything goes right, even if it probably won't pull a Moneyball on us.

7. Killing Them Softly (dir. Andrew Dominik) - October 19th



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDyaNnrgdp4

Everything about this movie, from the trailer to the poster, looks slick and stylish. From the director of the well recieved Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford comes a new crime thriller involving the investigation of a heist crossed with the mob. I haven't seen it, but everything about this movie looks pretty great, and word from Cannes has definitely been positive. I'll have this on my radar for sure when it comes out. Plus, the cast is pretty great - Brad Pitt, James Gandolfini, Richard Jenkins, and Ray Liotta.

6. Cloud Atlas (dir. Larry & Lana Wachowski and Tom Twyker) - October 26th

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWnAqFyaQ5s

An incredibly ambitious film from the Wachowskis, (The Matrix, Speed Racer) and Tom Twyker (Run Lola Run) Cloud Atlas looks to be a saga of humanity, interweaving several stories from the past, present, and future, each action with several consequences to be felt in the future. With a huge ensemble playing multiple roles - Tom Hanks, Halle Berry, Hugo Weaving, Jim Broadbent, Hugh Grant, Keith David, and more - the scale is just huge for the film (which is 164 minutes long!) This film has huge potential to be either a fantastic examination of human kind, or a complete disastrous mess. Here's to hoping that it will be the former.

Check back tomorrow for the top five!

August 8-10 Prediction: Will Batman Lose His Crown?

1. The Bourne Legacy - $33m - ~$9,167 PTA
2. The Campaign - $26m - ~$8,000 PTA
3. The Dark Knight Rises - $20.6m (-42.4%)
4. Hope Springs - $16m ($22m 5-day) - $6,777 PTA
5. Total Recall - $11.9m (-53.5%)
6. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $6.5m (-55.6%)
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift  - $5.6m (-35%)
8. The Watch - $3.3m (-49.4%)
9. Ted - $3.3m (-41.5%)
10. Step Up: Revolution - $2.8m(-52.8%)
-Nitro Circus 3D: The Movie - $0.5m ($0.7m 5-day) - ~$625 PTA




It's likely that The Dark Knight Rises will no longer keep its crown. However, it's also likely that none of the openers will truly break out, personally. None of them have entered the Fandango Top 5, though this is likely more alarming for Bourne, which is less likely to has as many walkups as the other openers.

The Bourne Legacy, the fourth film in the Bourne franchise, and the first not to star Matt Damon, drops on Friday, but it may not even pass The Bourne Identity's adjusted $37m opening weekend. There is certainly online buzz  and definite interest, but not enough for it to must big business. In fact, figures aren't even much higher than Total Recall. However, I will give it the benefit of the doubt by having goodwill from the trilogy. However, what's troubling is the fact that reviews are being embargoed until tomorrow, a bad sign for any movie quality wise. However, that's more likely to affect it in the long run, if at all. The Dark Knight Rises and Total Recall may drop a little more than otherwise expected as a result of a new and highly anticipated action film entering the market.

The Campaign's not likely to get past Ferrel's past comedies, unfortunately, but it should still merit a decent opening weekend. Online buzz is relatively weak, especially on twitter, but I have a feeling that this may attract more older audiences by the political pull coming from the nearby election with Romney Vs. Obama. Reviews are pretty solid at this point, so that may help word of mouth to keep it alive throughout the rest of the summer. Overall, I don't see this opening higher than Step Brother's 30m take, Ferrel's last R-rated comedy for the summer, but it won't pull a Semi-Pro either.

Rounding out the openers, we have the two that opened today. Hope Springs & Nitro Circus 3D. Hope Springs screams late summer success, with its likeable cast led by Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones, & Steve Carrell, as well as surprisingly solid reviews. It won't make a big splash right away, but with a little push, it could approach Julie & Julia's impressive 90m+ total. As for Nitro Circus, well, nobody seems to know that it exists. As a result, expect terrible numbers.

EDIT: Accuracy was 79.22%. I guess people knew that Nitro Circus existed.

August 3-5 Predictions: Heffley Vs. Hauser

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $33.6m (-45.9%)
2. Total Recall - $23m (~$6,765 PTA)
3. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $19.5m (~$6,290 PTA)
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $7.4m (-44.5%)
5. The Watch - $6.4m (-49.8%)
6. Step Up: Revolution - $5.6m (-52.3%)
7. Ted - 4.9m (-33.4%)
8. The Amazing Spider-Man - 4.3m (-35.8%)
9. Brave - 2.5m (-41.9%)
10. Magic Mike - 1.5m (-42.7%)





After a slow weekend outside of The Dark Knight Rises, two new openers could get into the 20s range for the weekend. These two films are the Total Recall remake with Colin Farrell and the next installment of the Wimpy Kid series. Still, neither one will be able to overtake the bat.

First up, we have the remake of Total Recall, based off the 1990 hit with Arnold Schwarzenegger. The film stars Farrell, as well as Jessica Biel, Kate Beckinsdale, and Bryan Cranston. The film was bumped down to a PG-13 rating, rather than the original's R rating, but scaled up to a big budget of as much as 200m. It may save face internationally, but there's not much hope for it to break out here. Internet buzz is not as high as it should be, and it's only at #5 on The Fandango Top 5 as of Wednesday. At least that should prevent a complete failure, but it's going to need more steam to be "successful." Expect a number from the mid to low 20s. This will probably end up like John Carter & Battleship, where the film is a domestic flop, but it saves some face overseas. Also, could Spider-Man benefit from fudging/double features? Possibly.

Next up is Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, the third installment of the Wimpy Kid saga, and the first to be released during the summer. (It's actually based on the 4th book. They just skipped over The Last Straw, the third book in the series.) The first two installments have consistently performed in the low 20s, but failed to get past a 3x multiplier. Expect the same for this installment, but perhaps a smaller opening, potentially in the high teens. However, family films like Wimpy Kid typically have better weekdays over the summer, so that should help legs a little bit. Also, the new family film may affect Ice Age 4 and Brave a little bit, so don't expect the same drops it had last weekend.

Of course, we have The Dark Knight Rises, likely to win its third consecutive weekend a la Inception and The Dark Knight. Weekdays are already getting close to passing the -50% threshold, and should make a sub 50% drop very likely, let alone doable. I'm guessing that it drops to 7m today and slightly decreases tommorow. If it increases at least 45% on Friday, it could get to as high as 35m for the weekend.

Coming Soon: Spaghetti's Fall Movie Preview!

EDIT: Accuracy was 89.13%. Damn you, Wimpy Kid.

July Recap

July 6 - 89.29%
July 13 - 91.91%
July 20 - 75.44%
July 27 - 94.15%
Average - 87.70%

Me gusta.

July 27-28: Doom & Gloom

After last weekend's horrifying turn of events, the entire field of box office was effected. With the incident still lingering and the excitement of the Olympic opening ceremony, it's unlikely to see the entire market rebound this weekend.

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $62.5m (-61.2%)
2. The Watch - $14.8m (~$4,933 PTA)
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $12.8m (-37.3%)
4. Step Up: Revolution - $11.5m (~$4,600 PTA)
5. The Amazing Spider-Man - 6.3m (-42.1%)
6. Ted - 6.1m (-39.1%)
7. Brave - 4m (-33.6%)
8. Magic Mike - 2.6m (-39.4%)
9. Savages - 1.7m (-50%)
10. Moonrise Kingdom - $1.4m (-23.5%)

Despite winning the weekend without breaking a sweat, The Dark Knight Rises will still tumble. The film's weekday holds have been not so great, performing on the lower end of expectations. The shooting at Aurora hasn't left anyone's minds yet, (Frankly, I'd be concerned if it did) and WOM for this is strong, but not enough so to get it through any disaster. That, and you have the highly anticipated Olympics starting with the opening ceremony tomorrow night. It's pretty disappointing how bleak things have gotten.

The Watch is not in a position to break out. Despite a few good reactions to the trailer, interest has never been too high, especially since it still has to face TDKR's second weekend. Take that with limited online buzz, and a comparison point to the dissapoint 2011 flick, The Change Up, I don't see this being very successful. Finally, we have Step Up Revolution, the 3D fourquel to the franchise. Fourquels typically disappoint from their predecessors, and this should be no exception. Small buzz for the genre online, as well as a generally depressed market. Too bad, so sad.

A Moment Of Silence

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/moviesnow/la-et-mn-aurora-dark-knight-rises-shootings-have-eerie-overtones-20120720,0,6667244.story?track=rss

It was supposed to be one of the biggest events in Hollywood of all time. People were excited for it for several years. I'm talking about the premiere of The Dark Knight Rises. And one man ruined it for everyone.

This despicable human being opened fire at a midnight showing of the movie last night. 14 were killed, and ~50 were injured. These figures both include young children. Disgusting. These people were all dying to see the movie, and being here must have been very meaningful. However, they died before even getting past the half hour mark. It's shameful that they can't experiences what they've been waiting for for so long. I don't want to think about the implications of the box office after this event. Seeing this event has made me sick to my stomach ever since I woke up this morning. 

I can only imagine what the filmmakers are going through. It wasn't their fault that this happened, and none of them should feel responsible for one horrible person's vile actions. Knowing that a film you worked so lovingly on for so long has led to this? It must be painful for them. Of course, the biggest sympathy goes out to the victims, as well as their friends and family. No one could have possibly seen this coming. It was a highly anticipated movie that turned into a nightmare for these people. The close friends and families of the victims are probably in shocked disbelief and utter devastation after finding out about this. My thoughts go out to all of you.

I don't know what the killer's motives was, but no matter what he was trying to prove or accomplish, he changed the way many would go into this movie. He changed excitement to fear for many people, and turned  what was supposed to be an exciting moment into a living nightmare. History was made, but not in a good way. Several years in prison would hardly atone for the cruel things that he's done.

My point is this: I'm not telling you not to see the movie because of what happened. Just recognize the unfortunate souls who never got to experience the movie they longed to see-or any such movie to come.

Thank you for listening.

July 20-22 Predictions: The Dark Knight Rises

1. The Dark Knight Rises- 195m ($44,278 PTA)
2. Ice Age: Continental Drift - 22.5m (-51.7%)
3. The Amazing Spider-Man - 15.1m (-56.4%)
4. Ted - 12.7m (-43.3%)
5. Brave - 6.4m (-42.7%)
6. Magic Mike - 5m (-44.5%)
7. Savages - 4.6m (-51%)
8. Moonrise Kingdom - 2.7m (-27.1%)
9. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection - 2.6m (-53.5%)
10. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - 1.8m (-50.9%)

Not Dark Knight? You get hit hard, unless you were made by WB and out long enough to be fudged.....oh, and Moonrise Kingdom, too.

THE DARK KNIGHT RISES: Final Analysis & Prediction

Well, it's officially time for what could be the biggest film event of the summer. You all know what I'm talking about: Step Up Revolution.
______________________________

Yeah...no. Here's my final words about The Dark Knight Rises before it opens on Friday.

PART 1: THE PUNDITS' VERDICT
As of Wednesday Afternoon, The Dark Knight Rises has a score of 80/100 on Metacritic with 25 reviews and 87% on Rotten Tomatoes with an average rating of 8.3/10 based on nearly 100 reviews. Perfectly in line with Nolan's past works, it's also his 7th consecutive film to score a certified fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. In fact, Following was the only film to not recieve this rank, and only because it didn't have enough reviews.

However, there were still some negative reviews, and knowing the internet, the harsher critics felt the wrath of fanboys everywhere. It got so bad, that RT actually had to close the comment section of all TDKR reviews! Much like the fact that most critics would like it, this wasn't really that surprising either. Films of this nature are breeding grounds for flame wars.

RT Consensus: The Dark Knight Rises is an ambitious, thoughtful, and potent action film that concludes Christopher Nolan's franchise in spectacular fashion, even if it doesn't quite meet the high standard set by its predecessor.

Of course it was going to be difficult for the film to live up to its predecessor, ranked highly among the modern greats, but the majority agreed that it wasn't going to be a bad film. These glowing praises are not unsurprising, but it's nice to know that we're all in for a treat starting on Friday. (Well, more like Thursday night.)

PART 2: DC VS. MARVEL
Earlier this year, The Avengers wowed everyone in the box office world by pulling off a nearly unprecedented opening weekend over $200m. Many predictors were quick on the draw to claim that Batman would perform the same feat two months later. Can it?

Some people thought that while The Avengers had a low 3D share, the dollar difference still played a big role. Nolan is sticking to his anti-3D beliefs (something I greatly appreciate) and only giving this IMAX and D-BOX boosts. The Avengers couldn't have added more than a small share of 3D royalties, as only 40% of tickets were bought for the extra dimension. According to BOM, that's roughly 10m tickets of the ow. Basically, The Avengers would have made at least 175m even without 3D, and given the massive hype surrounding TDKR, it should be able to easily pass that number.

Also, the IMAX factor is going to be pimped out for this film even more, with 300+ locations and nearly an hour of this film shot in IMAX. It will certainly pressure a lot of people to pay extra to see it in the larger format. Nolan has always excelled at making his films shine in IMAX, and this film could be his finest proof.

Overall, it's going to be a close battle between the two films. Both had powerhouse buzz, stellar reviews, hyped fans, and effective marketing campaigns. I can imagine more than a 90m gap between the two.

PART 3: MIDNIGHT MADNESS
The makerting team has made it clear that this is the big event of the summer. Ever since the trailer showed with Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows 2, as well as The Avengers, people are well aware of this film's landing. Given the fact that it's also being depicted as Batman's biggest challenge to date, as well as the final installment to Christopher Nolan's batman trilogy, this is not a film to take lightly. Given this marketing, it's clear that people will want to see this the minute it opens.

With films like Harry Potter, Twilight, & The Hunger Games, the midnight premiere market is growing frequently. Even The Avengers managed in the high teens on a day when school was still in session, slightly more than what The Dark Knight managed. Given the major pull of event films to midnight premieres, The Dark Knight rises could get past 30m, an unprecedented feat for a superhero film.

So far, only 3 films have 'eclipsed' that mark: Eclipse and Breaking Dawn of the Twilight Saga, and the current record holder, Deathly Hallows 2, with a staggering 43.5m. Of course, TDKR will struggle to approach such a high number, but 30m is attainable. However, it will probably take up a higher share of the daily gross on Friday if that is the case. The Dark Knight's midnight were about ~27% of its friday gross. I don't see the finale going any lower.

PART 4: SOME PERSONAL THOUGHTS
4 years ago, I saw The Dark Knight in a crowded movie theater, and this was a 6:10 show on an August Tuesday. Huge applause at the end, big gasps at the right spots, and so on-it was one of my favorite movie-going experiences of all time. I'm now looking forward to The Dark Knight Rises in an even greater respect.

Like so many of us, avoiding spoilers on the internet was a difficult task. I never read a single review, only checking if the critic liked it or not. So far, I'm clean, and once I see it, I look forward to seeing what I had to hide myself from when people discussed this movie.

I don't know what's going to happen at the very end, but all I can hope for is that Christopher Nolan did the right thing to do with the franchise. I have little doubt that he's going to let us down, so let's sit back, relax, and watch Batman's finest (?) hour unfold on the big screen.

PART 5: FINAL PREDICTIONS


Midnight: $31m
Friday: $89m (58m without midnights)
Saturday: $56m (-37.1% / -3.4%)
Sunday: $50m (-10.7%)
Opening Weekend: $195m ($44,278 PTA from 4,404 theaters.)
Domestic Total: $545m (2.79x from opening)
Overseas Gross: $705m 
Worldwide Gross: $1.25b (43.6% from Domestic Gross)

Spoiler-Free Movie Review: Ted

Let's get this out of the way now: I don't like Family Guy, and I don't watch American Dad nor The Cleveland Show. Basically, I'm not really a big fan of Seth McFarlene's work. However, I still wanted to see Ted. Maybe it was all the big buzz? The huge box office? The strange appeal of the concept? Either way, I went to see it with a big crowd on Saturday, and here's what I thought about it.

There are some genuinely funny moments in here. The trailer covers a few of them, but a lot of them are saved for the actual movie, fortunately. I won't necessarily spoil them, but a lot of them don't involve unnecessary vulgarity. Unfortunately, the humor in this movie was hit and miss. Seth McFarlene pretty much just wants to see how far he can go with a Talking teddy bear, and he over-indulges to the point where it gets kind of repetitive before the movie ends. Ted is pretty funny at times, though, but he doesn't have to resort to excessive crude humor to be a great character. I will admit that I laughed often, but I sometimes thought to myself,  "How exactly is this  funny?" I'm not saying that the movie isn't filled with laughs-I've definitely enjoyed a lot of it, but the overload of crude and offensive humor got kind of stale, but again, I'm not a big fan of Seth McFarlane's comedic style.

The plot itself is pretty simple: Mark Whalberg must choose between bromance (Ted) and romace (Mila Kunis.) Whalberg and Kunis have really great chemistry, and also some really good comedic timing. I've particularly wanted to see Whalberg in more comedies after seeing the hysterical The Other Guys. A sub plot involving a co-worker (Joel McHale, of Community and The Soup! fame) makes romantic advantages on Kunis. This subplot (co-character creates a love triangle) is pretty overdone, but it wasn't particularly great here. Still, it's not really badly done. The other subplot was a little more interesting. A man (Giovanni Ribisi) wants to purchase the talking teddy bear for his son, but Whalberg refuses. Will he settle down and comply, though?

Overall, Ted is a decent comedy, but fans of Seth McFarlene's works are more likely to enjoy it. And that's not to say that I disliked it. I at least enjoyed it to some extent, and there are even some heartfelt moments in this. This gets a recommendation from me, but just bear-ly (Wakka wakka!)

B-

July 13-15: Not So Calm Before The Storm

1. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $55m (~$14,474 PTA)
2. The Amazing Spider-Man - 31.3m (-49.5%)
3. Ted - $21.7m (-32.6%)
4. Brave - $11.2m (-42.9%)
5. Magic Mike - $9.2m (-41.2%)
6. Savages - $7.9m (-50.7%)
7. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection - 5.3m (-47.9%)
8. Moonrise Kingdom - $4m (-11.5%)
9. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $3.9m (-48.1%)
10. Katy Perry: Part Of Me (-53.7%)





Batman will take his stand against Bane next weekend, but that doesn't mean that we'll be bored for this weekend, considering how we've got the new installment in a popular animated franchise - Ice Age: Continental Drift. I'm doing predictions early this week because I'll be out of town until Sunday. 

Ice Age: Continental Drift, the only new release this weekend, is guaranteed a top spot. This fourth installment pits Sid, Diego, & Manny against a vicious crew of prehistoric pirates. Meanwhile, Scrat, everyone's favorite saber-toothed squirrel, still seeks that coveted acorn. Despite mixed reviews and the common trend for fourth installments to dissapoint, Ice Age should be in the clear to do well. In fact, the franchise has an inexplicably huge appeal overseas. The film already has a 200m WW gross before it even hits domestic cinemas! An opening weekend slightly under Madagascar 3 & Brave seems appropriate, as does a finish of ~$180m.

If it follows the trend of Transformers 1 and 3, as well as Spider-Man 2, a drop of around 50% could be in store for Spider-Man. It could drop under that mark if it keeps close to TF1's pattern-not necessarily the same drops day to day, but a similar position when all is said and done. Expect a second weekend slightly over $30m.

After a strong hold last weekend, Ted could be sprouting some serious legs, and it could have the second best weekend hold after Moonrise Kingdom, which could lead to a total close to $200m. It won't be quite on the level of Hangover and Bridesmaids legs, but it'll still be pretty great. Speaking of Moonrise Kingdom, it's shaping up to be this year's Midnight In Paris. It wouldn't surprise me if it stuck around long enough to get past $50m, and maybe even a Best Picture nomination way into next winter.

Brave & Madagascar 3 should take something of a hit from Ice Age 4, another major animated release. Madagascar 3 will likely also lose a larger proportion theaters, so it may drop even more than Brave.

Note: You'll have to highlight some of this. I'm not quite sure what the problem is. Sorry!

Spaghetti, out.

This is not inaccurate in depicting what happened this week.

July 6-8: Spidey, Savages, & Pop Stars

1. The Amazing Spider-Man - $68.5m ($15,864 PTA)
2. Ted - $29.5m (-45.8%)
3. Brave - $19.6m (-42.5%)
4. Magic Mike - $13.3m (-66%)
5. Savages - $12m ($4,568 PTA)
6. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection - $9.9m (-61%)
7. Katy Perry: Part Of Me 3D - $8m ($2,930 PTA)
8. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $6.9m (-41.7%)
9. Moonrise Kingdom - $4.2m (-14.8%)
10. Marvel's The Avengers - $2.6m (-41.2%)





With The Amazing Spider-Man off to a great start from a 35m Tuesday, and despite a big dip on Tuesday, it should be off to a very successful weekend. Meanwhile, the other openers, despite good reviews, will fail to make a significant impression.

I'll be honest. I was wrong about the Amazing Spider-Man. I figured that this would get the boot after a superhero behemoth summer, (The Avengers & The Dark Knight Rises, primarily) as the other two had much more potential, but I guess the Spider-Man name is enough to draw in anyone, even without Raimi, MacGuire, and Dunst. Thus, the prediction at the top is based on what I've seen from weekly box office, and with some influence from Transformer's opening weekend in 2007. The weekdays line up perfectly with 2007, conveniently. Expect a weekend in the high 60s, if not low 70s.

Savages has been getting surprisingly decent-to-good reviews from critics, some calling it a return to form for famous director Oliver Stone. This hard-R look at the world of Mexican drug cartels may not seem like a crowd pleaser, but there is some interest. Having said that, I'm not sure that it will be able to compete against Spider-Man, plus it has box office poison Taylor Kitsch, coming off the financial failues of John Carter & Battleship. Fortunately, this one only cost $45m, so no fear of bombing. Still, it's not likely to make it back on the domestic run alone.

Katy Perry's new concert/documentary, Part Of Me, should have it worse. For every Justin Bieber and Miley Cyrus movie, we have a Jonas Brothers and Glee concert movie. Due to a low level of buzz, competing interests in the female market, (Brave, Magic Mike, probably Spider-Man,  etc.) and the fact that Katy Perry isn't quite as popular as Bieber, the movie will fall into the category of the latter. It got good reviews, though, but that's generally uncommon for films of this genre.

The two major holdovers from last weekend, Ted and Magic Mike, will probably have different experiences in holds. Ted is already shaping up to be a runaway hit, with over 80m in a week, and it should manage to avoid a 50% dip this weekend, despite the film's mammoth opening weekend last week (I knew it would be big, but I chickened out at the last minute. >_>) I'm not chickening out on Magic Mike dropping big, though. It's already showing signs of massive front loaded-ness (40%+ drops on Saturday and Wednesday-even Spider-Man dropped less!) A drop in the high 60s may be in store for this, and it doesn't have the runaway WOM needed to keep it from a big fall.

EDIT: 89.29% Accuracy this week, with a perfect score on Brave.

June 29-July 1 Predictions: Teddies Vs. Tatum

1. Magic Mike - $41.5m ($14,164 PTA)
2. Brave - $34m (-48.7%)

3. Ted - $33m ($10,188 PTA)

4. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection - $24.8m ($11,476 PTA)

5. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $11.9m (-39.6%)

6. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter- 7m (-57.1%)

7. People Like Us - 5.4m ($2,628 PTA)
8. Prometheus - $5.1m (-48.5%)
9. Snow White & The Huntsman - $4.5m (-44.3%)
10. Marvel's The Avengers - $4.2m (-41.5%)




The contest for #1 should be tight this weekend, between Pixar's holdover, Brave, and two very different kinds of R-rated comedies. Two other openers, a new Madea movie and a Chris Pine/Elizabeth Banks romantic dramedy, are also entering the spotlight. Will either one be able to shine?


First, we have Magic Mike, Steven Soderbergh's unconventional dramedy about male strippers (The film is given a hard R rating, of course) starring Channing Tatum and Alex Pettyfer. The Vow and 21 Jump Street have made Tatum more popular than ever before, and his name (and body, for that matter) will draw a lot of people to the movies, especially women. The film is even dominating fandango sales with more than 50% of tickets sold and twitter buzz ratings. With no female oriented film since What To Expect When You're Expecting, this could end up breaking out and topping the box office.

Ted, the directorial debut of Seth McFarlane of Family Guy and American Dad fame, brings McFarlane's crude humor to the big screen, telling the story of a man (Mark Whalberg) who lives with a talking stuffed teddy bear. (voiced by McFarlane himself)  With positive reviews and a definite level of buzz since the trailer came out in early April, this R-rated comedy should have no problem at the box office, especially if the numerous fans of Family Guy come out for this. Bad Teacher numbers are a good barometer for this, but it could probably go even higher.

Tyler Perry's 10th film is roughly 6 years, Madea's Witness Protection, is just that: Tyler Perry putting on drag once more. Madea's Big Happy Family managed 25m on its opening weekend, but that's a bit dissapointing when compared with Madea Goes To Jail's 40m. However, Think Like A Man's breakout weekend back in April proved that there's still a big audience for such films. Due to the competition this weekend, though, Madea may struggle to definitely break out, but it should still perform decently. Expect something around BHF's numbers.

Finally, People Like Us is likely to be the runt of the litter. Chris Pine and Elizabeth Banks are certainly noteworthy stars, but they're probably not enough to draw big numbers into the theater. Combine that with minimal buzz and a low theater count, this may struggle to be a box office success. Decent reviews may help protect it from completely dying out, but for now, things aren't looking so good for this.

Brave had a solid opening weekend, right in line with last year's Cars 2. The difference is that the former will probably have a better hold, especially if no direct competition is opening. Still, the weekdays aren't showing amazing holds, but that's not really happening for anything. Expect a drop under 50%, but in line with how Toy Story 3 and WALL-E fared. Madagascar 3 should keep having consistent holds, and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter will probably keep falling, due to the iffy word of mouth.

EDIT: Results Of Prediction - 90.47% (Me gusta.)