Friday, January 4, 2013

Weekend Predictions: January 4-6

1. Texas Chainsaw 3D - $20.5m
2.The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $18.2m
3. Django Unchained - $18.2m
4. Les Miserables - $16.1m
5. Parental Guidance - $9.4m
6. Jack Reacher - $8.6m
7. This Is 40 - $8.2m
8. Lincoln - $5.1m
9. The Guilt Trip - $4.2m
10. Promised Land - $4m
-The Impossible - $2m
-Not Fade Away - $0.9m

Apparently the word "massacre" is too much for the first wide release of 2013. That's right, it's Texas Chainsaw 3D. Horror plus 3D plus famous franchise? What could possibly go wrong? Indeed, it's probably going to get some business. Twitter buzz has been huge, albeit having a positive:negative ratio of 1:1. However, the holdovers are still doing just fine, so maybe they might steal thunder from Texas Chainsaw. Either way, with WOM being iffy so far, don't expect any good legs for this reboot.

Django Unchained and Les Miserables will each cross $100m this weekend, and they're on their way to do even more, especially of both earn Best Picture nominations. Les Mis will probably end around $140m-$150m, while Django, if current patterns hold up, has a slight chance to outdo True Grit's massive $170m take back in 2010.

Promised Land has minimal buzz, and it lacks strong reviews for Oscar attention. It has a relatively strong theater count, but even Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy numbers seem unlikely for this. The Impossible could have done moderately well this weekend, but Summit should have released it on more theaters. (It's not even a wide release!) Seriously, Perks of Being a Wallflower and now this? What are the distributors smoking here? Not Fade Away....if it couldn't even be a hit in platform release, it's not looking good for its pseudo-wide release.


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