President's Day Weekend Predictions

 

 Note that these predictions are for the 4-day weekend.

1. A Good Day To Die Hard - $39.6m (NEW) - $11,145 PTA
2. Safe Haven - $26.3m (NEW) - $8,155 PTA
3. Identity Thief - $23.9m (-30.8%) - $7,551 PTA
4. Escape From Planet Earth - $15.7m (NEW) - $4,775 PTA
5. Beautiful Creatures - $15.5m (NEW) - $5,254 PTA
6. Warm Bodies - $8.4m (-26%) - $2,830 PTA
7. Silver Linings Playbook - $7.2m (+12.1%) - $3,270 PTA
8. Side Effects - $6.5m (-30.1%) - $2,495 PTA
9. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters - $3.9m (-32.2%) - PTA Unknown
10. Zero Dark Thirty - $3.1m (-22.6%) - $2,036 PTA

We've got four new releases this weekend, each with some box office potential. Will these four live up to it?

First, we have A Good Day To Die Hard, the fifth installment to the classic action franchise. Bruce Willis is back as John McClean, and he's going to Russia this time. Unfortunately, the film's been critically panned so far, with a pathetic 12% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences defied the critics' warnings with Identity Thief last weekend, so it should be likely that A Good Day To Die Hard is safe from box office harm. However, whether or not it has any staying power will depend on word of mouth. Taken 2 seems like the best comparison, so expect this fifth installment to finish with around $110m-$120m.

Safe Haven, the adaption of the Nicholas Sparks novel, was also cruelly treated by the critics. However, young women will still swoon over this movie, and it's exploding on online social networking websites. Johj Duhmael and Julianne Hough don't have the same star power as Channing Tatum, Amanda Seyfried, Rachel McAdams, etc., but expect a decent run for this. However, a high share of its five day gross is coming from tonight, the day of love.

Third in the line-up is Beautiful Creatures, a young adult fantasy featuring magical people, southern accents, and excessive scenery chewing. Safe Haven is probably going to steal a good share of the audience away from this, so it'll be hard pressed to become the next big young adult phenomenon. In fact, I doubt that we'll get another Hunger Games/Twilight/Harry Potter like franchise until Divergent. Still, it's fair to expect a modest run around a high teens/low 20s 5-day weekend and a total around $40m-$50m.

Finally, there's Escpae From Planet Earth, an animated movie from an independent studio. The fact that it comes out tomorrow and there's not even a single review up probably means that it's a stinker, but families might be less picky considering how they haven't had a certain family audience film since Rise of the Guardians. Don't expect a Gnomeo-esque run for this, but decent numbers are still in the cards for this.