August 8-10 Prediction: Will Batman Lose His Crown?

1. The Bourne Legacy - $33m - ~$9,167 PTA
2. The Campaign - $26m - ~$8,000 PTA
3. The Dark Knight Rises - $20.6m (-42.4%)
4. Hope Springs - $16m ($22m 5-day) - $6,777 PTA
5. Total Recall - $11.9m (-53.5%)
6. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $6.5m (-55.6%)
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift  - $5.6m (-35%)
8. The Watch - $3.3m (-49.4%)
9. Ted - $3.3m (-41.5%)
10. Step Up: Revolution - $2.8m(-52.8%)
-Nitro Circus 3D: The Movie - $0.5m ($0.7m 5-day) - ~$625 PTA




It's likely that The Dark Knight Rises will no longer keep its crown. However, it's also likely that none of the openers will truly break out, personally. None of them have entered the Fandango Top 5, though this is likely more alarming for Bourne, which is less likely to has as many walkups as the other openers.

The Bourne Legacy, the fourth film in the Bourne franchise, and the first not to star Matt Damon, drops on Friday, but it may not even pass The Bourne Identity's adjusted $37m opening weekend. There is certainly online buzz  and definite interest, but not enough for it to must big business. In fact, figures aren't even much higher than Total Recall. However, I will give it the benefit of the doubt by having goodwill from the trilogy. However, what's troubling is the fact that reviews are being embargoed until tomorrow, a bad sign for any movie quality wise. However, that's more likely to affect it in the long run, if at all. The Dark Knight Rises and Total Recall may drop a little more than otherwise expected as a result of a new and highly anticipated action film entering the market.

The Campaign's not likely to get past Ferrel's past comedies, unfortunately, but it should still merit a decent opening weekend. Online buzz is relatively weak, especially on twitter, but I have a feeling that this may attract more older audiences by the political pull coming from the nearby election with Romney Vs. Obama. Reviews are pretty solid at this point, so that may help word of mouth to keep it alive throughout the rest of the summer. Overall, I don't see this opening higher than Step Brother's 30m take, Ferrel's last R-rated comedy for the summer, but it won't pull a Semi-Pro either.

Rounding out the openers, we have the two that opened today. Hope Springs & Nitro Circus 3D. Hope Springs screams late summer success, with its likeable cast led by Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones, & Steve Carrell, as well as surprisingly solid reviews. It won't make a big splash right away, but with a little push, it could approach Julie & Julia's impressive 90m+ total. As for Nitro Circus, well, nobody seems to know that it exists. As a result, expect terrible numbers.

EDIT: Accuracy was 79.22%. I guess people knew that Nitro Circus existed.