Thursday, August 23, 2012

Weekend Predictions: No One Will 'Rush' To New Openers

1. The Expendables 2 - $13.9m (-51.4%) - $4,143 PTA
2. The Bourne Legacy - $9.4m (-44.9%) - $2,574 PTA
3. ParaNorman - $8.8m (-37.5%) - $2,547 PTA
4. The Campaign - $7.8m (-40.6%) - $2,362 PTA
5. The Odd Life Of Timothy Green - $7.2m (-33.5%) - $2,771 PTA
6. The Dark Knight Rises - $7.1m (-35.5%) - $2,724 PTA
7. Premium Rush - $7m (NEW) - $3,104 PTA
8. Hope Springs- $6.3m (-30.8%) - $2,623 PTA
9. Sparkle - $4.9m (-57.9%) - $2,184 PTA
10. 2016: Obama's America - $4.6m (+369.5%) - $4,220 PTA
11. Hit & Run - $3.5m (NEW) - $1,220 PTA
12. The Apparition - $3.1m (NEW) - $3,827 PTA

Get ready for one of the slowest weekends of the year. The Expendables 2 should have an easy time repeating, dropping closely to its predecessor, simply because all of the openers will make a very limited splash.

Premium Rush has good reviews and Joseph Gordon Levitt, (easily one of the biggest rising stars of the moment, but still not enough to open a movie as the main billing) but that's about it. Online buzz is limited, as are ticket sales. The weak theater count is also not promising. Then again, the concept - intense bike deliveries across New York City - isn't really going to appeal to mainstream audiences. I'm sure there's still people who want to see it, but not enough to propel it higher than single digits, unfortunately.

Hit & Run looks even worse off. Supposedly bumped up to Wednesday in an effort to build up WOM for the weekend, it was dead on arrival with a pathetic $625k take from over 2,600 theaters. Buzz and marketing for this has been substantially limited, and nobody in the ensemble is a big draw. Hell, the supposed WOM that's supposed to be brewing is kind of absent. Expect a pitiful PTA this weekend and a sub $4m opening. It won't even crack the top 10.

The other two openers, 2016: Obama's America and The Apparition, will likely make kind of a splash, despite low theater counts. (The Apparition has less than 1,000, for pete's sake.) The conservative documentary on Obama will probably do well in the nation's republican states, such as those in the south. Meanwhile, The Apparition actually has more buzz than any other opener this week. Expect a decent per theater average, but still not one large enough to overtake its pitiful theater count.

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